Recent Météo-France vigilance alerts and ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and GFS show a persistent warm air mass over western Europe driving peak Paris temperatures of 37–39°C on August 14 under sunny skies and light winds. The urban heat island effect further elevates readings in central Paris relative to surrounding areas. These conditions align with the market’s highest implied probabilities for 38°C and 39°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and limited downside risk from cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Paris on August 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?
39°C 42%
38°C 33%
40°C 12%
37°C 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
7%
38°C
33%
39°C
42%
40°C
12%
41°C
3%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 42%
38°C 33%
40°C 12%
37°C 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$12 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C
$15 ปริมาณ
2%
37°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
38°C
$128 ปริมาณ
33%
39°C
$134 ปริมาณ
42%
40°C
$0 ปริมาณ
12%
41°C
$16 ปริมาณ
3%
42°C
$33 ปริมาณ
1%
43°C
$12 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C
$12 ปริมาณ
<1%
45°C or higher
$12 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France vigilance alerts and ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and GFS show a persistent warm air mass over western Europe driving peak Paris temperatures of 37–39°C on August 14 under sunny skies and light winds. The urban heat island effect further elevates readings in central Paris relative to surrounding areas. These conditions align with the market’s highest implied probabilities for 38°C and 39°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and limited downside risk from cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$374วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France vigilance alerts and ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and GFS show a persistent warm air mass over western Europe driving peak Paris temperatures of 37–39°C on August 14 under sunny skies and light winds. The urban heat island effect further elevates readings in central Paris relative to surrounding areas. These conditions align with the market’s highest implied probabilities for 38°C and 39°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and limited downside risk from cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$374วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France vigilance alerts and ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and GFS show a persistent warm air mass over western Europe driving peak Paris temperatures of 37–39°C on August 14 under sunny skies and light winds. The urban heat island effect further elevates readings in central Paris relative to surrounding areas. These conditions align with the market’s highest implied probabilities for 38°C and 39°C outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and limited downside risk from cloud cover or frontal passage. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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