Recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate Warsaw highs of 26–28 °C on August 14 under scattered clouds and light southerly flow, with ensemble means clustering near 27 °C and limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and daytime insolation. Recent model runs show stable high pressure suppressing cloud cover and limiting convective cooling, while climatological August averages of 23–25 °C provide context for the elevated but not extreme signal. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 26 °C and 27 °C because small shifts in afternoon dew-point depression or minor timing of any weak frontal passage could tip the daily maximum across that threshold, with 28 °C remaining plausible only if subsidence warming strengthens beyond current guidance. Updated 12z runs and local observations will refine these probabilities before resolution.