Current JMA and international model consensus points to Tokyo overnight lows near 24°C on August 14 amid a strengthened Pacific subtropical high that suppresses radiative cooling and sustains elevated humidity. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further limit nighttime temperature drops below seasonal normals of 23.7°C, while scattered showers or variable cloud cover can modulate boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Above-normal summer temperatures tied to the 2025–2026 heat trend reinforce this range, yet subtle differences in forecast precipitation timing and wind patterns create the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
24°C 47%
23°C 31%
25°C 14%
26°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 14, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
7%
23°C
31%
24°C
47%
25°C
14%
26°C
10%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 47%
23°C 31%
25°C 14%
26°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 14, 2026
19°C or below
$33 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$33 ปริมาณ
2%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
23°C
$51 ปริมาณ
31%
24°C
$68 ปริมาณ
47%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
27°C
$33 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$33 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C or higher
$27 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current JMA and international model consensus points to Tokyo overnight lows near 24°C on August 14 amid a strengthened Pacific subtropical high that suppresses radiative cooling and sustains elevated humidity. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further limit nighttime temperature drops below seasonal normals of 23.7°C, while scattered showers or variable cloud cover can modulate boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Above-normal summer temperatures tied to the 2025–2026 heat trend reinforce this range, yet subtle differences in forecast precipitation timing and wind patterns create the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$277วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current JMA and international model consensus points to Tokyo overnight lows near 24°C on August 14 amid a strengthened Pacific subtropical high that suppresses radiative cooling and sustains elevated humidity. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further limit nighttime temperature drops below seasonal normals of 23.7°C, while scattered showers or variable cloud cover can modulate boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Above-normal summer temperatures tied to the 2025–2026 heat trend reinforce this range, yet subtle differences in forecast precipitation timing and wind patterns create the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$277วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current JMA and international model consensus points to Tokyo overnight lows near 24°C on August 14 amid a strengthened Pacific subtropical high that suppresses radiative cooling and sustains elevated humidity. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further limit nighttime temperature drops below seasonal normals of 23.7°C, while scattered showers or variable cloud cover can modulate boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Above-normal summer temperatures tied to the 2025–2026 heat trend reinforce this range, yet subtle differences in forecast precipitation timing and wind patterns create the tight market split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย