Model consensus from NOAA and National Weather Service guidance currently favors a Seattle high temperature in the upper 70s on August 17, aligning with the market’s peak implied probability on 78-79°F. Typical August climatology near 77°F, combined with a building upper-level ridge and light onshore flow, supports this range while limiting extreme outliers. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing that can suppress or enhance peaks by a few degrees, minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day cloud cover that reduces insolation. Traders are pricing the narrow 74–81°F window most heavily because ensemble runs show limited potential for significant deviation, though small forecast adjustments ahead of resolution could still shift the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Seattle on August 17?
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 17?
78-79°F 34%
76-77°F 24%
80-81°F 23%
74-75°F 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 17, 2026
71°F or below
2%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 34%
76-77°F 24%
80-81°F 23%
74-75°F 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 17, 2026
71°F or below
$15 ปริมาณ
2%
72-73°F
$130 ปริมาณ
6%
74-75°F
$20 ปริมาณ
10%
76-77°F
$113 ปริมาณ
24%
78-79°F
$55 ปริมาณ
34%
80-81°F
$179 ปริมาณ
23%
82-83°F
$280 ปริมาณ
6%
84-85°F
$51 ปริมาณ
1%
86-87°F
$41 ปริมาณ
3%
88-89°F
$135 ปริมาณ
<1%
90°F or higher
$135 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from NOAA and National Weather Service guidance currently favors a Seattle high temperature in the upper 70s on August 17, aligning with the market’s peak implied probability on 78-79°F. Typical August climatology near 77°F, combined with a building upper-level ridge and light onshore flow, supports this range while limiting extreme outliers. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing that can suppress or enhance peaks by a few degrees, minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day cloud cover that reduces insolation. Traders are pricing the narrow 74–81°F window most heavily because ensemble runs show limited potential for significant deviation, though small forecast adjustments ahead of resolution could still shift the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,153วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from NOAA and National Weather Service guidance currently favors a Seattle high temperature in the upper 70s on August 17, aligning with the market’s peak implied probability on 78-79°F. Typical August climatology near 77°F, combined with a building upper-level ridge and light onshore flow, supports this range while limiting extreme outliers. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing that can suppress or enhance peaks by a few degrees, minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day cloud cover that reduces insolation. Traders are pricing the narrow 74–81°F window most heavily because ensemble runs show limited potential for significant deviation, though small forecast adjustments ahead of resolution could still shift the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,153วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Model consensus from NOAA and National Weather Service guidance currently favors a Seattle high temperature in the upper 70s on August 17, aligning with the market’s peak implied probability on 78-79°F. Typical August climatology near 77°F, combined with a building upper-level ridge and light onshore flow, supports this range while limiting extreme outliers. Key variables include afternoon sea-breeze timing that can suppress or enhance peaks by a few degrees, minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture, and any late-day cloud cover that reduces insolation. Traders are pricing the narrow 74–81°F window most heavily because ensemble runs show limited potential for significant deviation, though small forecast adjustments ahead of resolution could still shift the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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