Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads for incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's Christian Democrats at 21-23% in recent surveys like INSA (April 7-14) and Civey (March). The SPD and AfD tie for second at 17%, with Grüne and Linke at 15% each, amid a fragmented field where the current CDU-SPD coalition polls below a majority at 38%. Minimal shifts in the past month underscore stable voter sentiment, driven by incumbency advantages and coalition dissatisfaction, though SPD and AfD gains narrow the CDU lead slightly; no-confidence risks or campaign events could shift dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBerlin Eyalet Seçimlerinin Kazananı
Berlin Eyalet Seçimlerinin Kazananı
CDU 57%
Grüne 15.3%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,573 Hac.
$2,572,573 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
CDU
57%
Grüne
15%
Linke
12%
AfD
9%
SPD
8%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 57%
Grüne 15.3%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,573 Hac.
$2,572,573 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
CDU
$15,140 Hac.
57%
Grüne
$27,805 Hac.
15%
Linke
$11,555 Hac.
12%
AfD
$2,187,196 Hac.
9%
SPD
$287,315 Hac.
8%
BSW
$26,261 Hac.
1%
FDP
$10,274 Hac.
<1%
FW
$7,026 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads for incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's Christian Democrats at 21-23% in recent surveys like INSA (April 7-14) and Civey (March). The SPD and AfD tie for second at 17%, with Grüne and Linke at 15% each, amid a fragmented field where the current CDU-SPD coalition polls below a majority at 38%. Minimal shifts in the past month underscore stable voter sentiment, driven by incumbency advantages and coalition dissatisfaction, though SPD and AfD gains narrow the CDU lead slightly; no-confidence risks or campaign events could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Hacim
$2,572,573Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads for incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's Christian Democrats at 21-23% in recent surveys like INSA (April 7-14) and Civey (March). The SPD and AfD tie for second at 17%, with Grüne and Linke at 15% each, amid a fragmented field where the current CDU-SPD coalition polls below a majority at 38%. Minimal shifts in the past month underscore stable voter sentiment, driven by incumbency advantages and coalition dissatisfaction, though SPD and AfD gains narrow the CDU lead slightly; no-confidence risks or campaign events could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Hacim
$2,572,573Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with a 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent poll leads for incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's Christian Democrats at 21-23% in recent surveys like INSA (April 7-14) and Civey (March). The SPD and AfD tie for second at 17%, with Grüne and Linke at 15% each, amid a fragmented field where the current CDU-SPD coalition polls below a majority at 38%. Minimal shifts in the past month underscore stable voter sentiment, driven by incumbency advantages and coalition dissatisfaction, though SPD and AfD gains narrow the CDU lead slightly; no-confidence risks or campaign events could shift dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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