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Siyaset·PRIMARIEL

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Siyaset·PRIMARIEL

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Chalifoux 34%

Marcus Carter 8%

Justin Story 7%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,453 Hac.

Thomas Chalifoux 34%

Marcus Carter 8%

Justin Story 7%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,453 Hac.

Thomas Chalifoux

$735 Hac.

49%

Marcus Carter

$289 Hac.

8%

Justin Story

$7,527 Hac.

20%

Jorge Malavet

$1,901 Hac.

7%

Howard Steven Rance

$0 Hac.

4%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux holds trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the FL-09 Republican primary due to his superior fundraising—over $2 million cash on hand entering 2026—and name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP primary and mounting a competitive general election challenge against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story trails at 21.5%, supported by his profile as a retired Marine Corps officer and sixth-generation Central Floridian appealing to local voters in this closed primary on August 18. Lower odds for Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, and Howard Steven Rance reflect limited visibility and resources among the crowded field, amid ongoing discussions of potential redistricting that could reshape district lines. No public polls have emerged, leaving skin-in-the-game assessments to drive positioning.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Hacim
$10,453
Bitiş Tarihi
18 Ağu 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux holds trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for the FL-09 Republican primary due to his superior fundraising—over $2 million cash on hand entering 2026—and name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP primary and mounting a competitive general election challenge against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story trails at 21.5%, supported by his profile as a retired Marine Corps officer and sixth-generation Central Floridian appealing to local voters in this closed primary on August 18. Lower odds for Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, and Howard Steven Rance reflect limited visibility and resources among the crowded field, amid ongoing discussions of potential redistricting that could reshape district lines. No public polls have emerged, leaving skin-in-the-game assessments to drive positioning.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Hacim
$10,453
Bitiş Tarihi
18 Ağu 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 5 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 49% ile "Thomas Chalifoux", ardından 20% ile "Justin Story" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 49¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 49% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" toplam $10.5K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Dec 23, 2025 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 5 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" için mevcut favori 49% ile "Thomas Chalifoux"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 49% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 20% ile "Justin Story"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.