Historic direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, hosted by the U.S. State Department on April 14-15, marked the first such negotiations in decades, focusing on Hezbollah disarmament and long-term security arrangements rather than an immediate ceasefire, which Israel explicitly ruled out discussing with the Iran-backed group. Despite the diplomacy, Israeli airstrikes targeted over 100 sites in southern Lebanon this week, overwhelming hospitals, while Hezbollah launched rocket barrages into northern Israel, rejecting the bilateral talks and vowing not to abide by any resulting agreements. Israel's security cabinet is convening imminently to weigh a potential truce amid fragile regional dynamics post-Iran ceasefire, with Hezbollah signaling conditional acceptance if all conflict parties comply. Ongoing escalation underscores trader uncertainty on near-term de-escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİsrail x Hizbullah ateşkesi...?
İsrail x Hizbullah ateşkesi...?
$10,641,165 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
15 Nisan
2%
30 Nisan
67%
30 Haziran
83%
$10,641,165 Hac.
15 Nisan
$7,224,238 Hac.
2%
30 Nisan
$2,686,991 Hac.
67%
30 Haziran
$354,704 Hac.
83%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Historic direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, hosted by the U.S. State Department on April 14-15, marked the first such negotiations in decades, focusing on Hezbollah disarmament and long-term security arrangements rather than an immediate ceasefire, which Israel explicitly ruled out discussing with the Iran-backed group. Despite the diplomacy, Israeli airstrikes targeted over 100 sites in southern Lebanon this week, overwhelming hospitals, while Hezbollah launched rocket barrages into northern Israel, rejecting the bilateral talks and vowing not to abide by any resulting agreements. Israel's security cabinet is convening imminently to weigh a potential truce amid fragile regional dynamics post-Iran ceasefire, with Hezbollah signaling conditional acceptance if all conflict parties comply. Ongoing escalation underscores trader uncertainty on near-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Hacim
$10,641,165Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Historic direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, hosted by the U.S. State Department on April 14-15, marked the first such negotiations in decades, focusing on Hezbollah disarmament and long-term security arrangements rather than an immediate ceasefire, which Israel explicitly ruled out discussing with the Iran-backed group. Despite the diplomacy, Israeli airstrikes targeted over 100 sites in southern Lebanon this week, overwhelming hospitals, while Hezbollah launched rocket barrages into northern Israel, rejecting the bilateral talks and vowing not to abide by any resulting agreements. Israel's security cabinet is convening imminently to weigh a potential truce amid fragile regional dynamics post-Iran ceasefire, with Hezbollah signaling conditional acceptance if all conflict parties comply. Ongoing escalation underscores trader uncertainty on near-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Hacim
$10,641,165Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historic direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, hosted by the U.S. State Department on April 14-15, marked the first such negotiations in decades, focusing on Hezbollah disarmament and long-term security arrangements rather than an immediate ceasefire, which Israel explicitly ruled out discussing with the Iran-backed group. Despite the diplomacy, Israeli airstrikes targeted over 100 sites in southern Lebanon this week, overwhelming hospitals, while Hezbollah launched rocket barrages into northern Israel, rejecting the bilateral talks and vowing not to abide by any resulting agreements. Israel's security cabinet is convening imminently to weigh a potential truce amid fragile regional dynamics post-Iran ceasefire, with Hezbollah signaling conditional acceptance if all conflict parties comply. Ongoing escalation underscores trader uncertainty on near-term de-escalation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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