A federal judge upheld a March ruling on April 3 blocking Department of Justice subpoenas in its criminal probe of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his June 2025 congressional testimony on a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, citing insufficient evidence and potential pretext for pressuring monetary policy. No charges have been filed despite the DOJ's recent unannounced visit to the Fed being rebuffed, and trader consensus at 97.3% "No" reflects judicial barriers, the tight timeline to June 30—post-Powell's May 15 term end as chair—and absence of new developments advancing toward indictment. Scenarios like a successful DOJ appeal to the D.C. Circuit or emergent evidence could shift odds, though historical Fed independence weighs against rapid escalation.