Trader consensus implies a 53% chance Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister through 2026, buoyed by the absence of a formal Labour leadership challenge despite his net approval at -47 and Labour trailing Reform UK and Greens in polls. Angela Rayner's recent speeches, including a March 18 intervention warning the party is "running out of time" amid policy critiques on immigration and delivery, have elevated her to 18.5% as the leading successor, with allies plotting ahead of May's local elections expected to test Labour severely. Cabinet figures like Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting draw modest support at 4.5% each amid reshuffle speculation, while Nigel Farage's low odds reflect Reform's polling gains but no snap election path. A poor local election showing could trigger no-confidence moves or internal revolt, though MPs remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026'da yeni Başbakan yok 53%
Angela Rayner 19%
Ed Miliband 4.6%
Wes Streeting 5%
$4,550,335 Hac.
$4,550,335 Hac.
2026'da yeni Başbakan yok
53%
Angela Rayner
19%
Ed Miliband
5%
Wes Streeting
5%
Nigel Farage
3%
Rupert Lowe
3%
Andy Burnham
2%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
2026'da yeni Başbakan yok 53%
Angela Rayner 19%
Ed Miliband 4.6%
Wes Streeting 5%
$4,550,335 Hac.
$4,550,335 Hac.
2026'da yeni Başbakan yok
53%
Angela Rayner
19%
Ed Miliband
5%
Wes Streeting
5%
Nigel Farage
3%
Rupert Lowe
3%
Andy Burnham
2%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus implies a 53% chance Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister through 2026, buoyed by the absence of a formal Labour leadership challenge despite his net approval at -47 and Labour trailing Reform UK and Greens in polls. Angela Rayner's recent speeches, including a March 18 intervention warning the party is "running out of time" amid policy critiques on immigration and delivery, have elevated her to 18.5% as the leading successor, with allies plotting ahead of May's local elections expected to test Labour severely. Cabinet figures like Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting draw modest support at 4.5% each amid reshuffle speculation, while Nigel Farage's low odds reflect Reform's polling gains but no snap election path. A poor local election showing could trigger no-confidence moves or internal revolt, though MPs remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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