Exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum following Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12-13 consistently position Keiko Fujimori first with 16.5-17.1% of valid votes, leading challengers like Rafael López Aliaga, Roberto Sánchez Palomino, and Jorge Nieto by approximately 4-5 percentage points in a fragmented 35-candidate field requiring a runoff on June 7. Logistical delays in ballot delivery extended voting and slowed official ONPE tallies to 91% processed as of April 15, confirming her 17.04% versus 12.07% for second-place Sánchez—a near-5% gap—bolstering trader consensus on a 5%+ margin while a tight second-place battle elevates the <5% risk to 14.4%. No other outcomes garner traction amid her dominant lead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiPeru Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimi İlk Turu: Zafer Marjı
Peru Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimi İlk Turu: Zafer Marjı
Keiko Fujimori %5+ 78.9%
Keiko Fujimori <%5 11.8%
Diğer 3.2%
Rafael López Aliaga %15+ <1%
$286,506 Hac.
$286,506 Hac.
12 Nis 2026
Rafael López Aliaga %15+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga %10-15
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga %5-10
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <%5
<1%
Alfonso López Chau %5+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau < %5
<1%
Keiko Fujimori %5+
79%
Keiko Fujimori <%5
14%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Diğer
3%
Keiko Fujimori %5+ 78.9%
Keiko Fujimori <%5 11.8%
Diğer 3.2%
Rafael López Aliaga %15+ <1%
$286,506 Hac.
$286,506 Hac.
12 Nis 2026
Rafael López Aliaga %15+
$8,336 Hac.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga %10-15
$10,022 Hac.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga %5-10
$6,707 Hac.
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <%5
$11,227 Hac.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau %5+
$6,911 Hac.
<1%
Alfonso López Chau < %5
$6,047 Hac.
<1%
Keiko Fujimori %5+
$78,882 Hac.
79%
Keiko Fujimori <%5
$105,461 Hac.
14%
Jorge Nieto
$6,335 Hac.
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$10,618 Hac.
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,420 Hac.
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$5,810 Hac.
<1%
Diğer
$25,730 Hac.
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum following Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12-13 consistently position Keiko Fujimori first with 16.5-17.1% of valid votes, leading challengers like Rafael López Aliaga, Roberto Sánchez Palomino, and Jorge Nieto by approximately 4-5 percentage points in a fragmented 35-candidate field requiring a runoff on June 7. Logistical delays in ballot delivery extended voting and slowed official ONPE tallies to 91% processed as of April 15, confirming her 17.04% versus 12.07% for second-place Sánchez—a near-5% gap—bolstering trader consensus on a 5%+ margin while a tight second-place battle elevates the <5% risk to 14.4%. No other outcomes garner traction amid her dominant lead.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Hacim
$286,506Bitiş Tarihi
12 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum following Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12-13 consistently position Keiko Fujimori first with 16.5-17.1% of valid votes, leading challengers like Rafael López Aliaga, Roberto Sánchez Palomino, and Jorge Nieto by approximately 4-5 percentage points in a fragmented 35-candidate field requiring a runoff on June 7. Logistical delays in ballot delivery extended voting and slowed official ONPE tallies to 91% processed as of April 15, confirming her 17.04% versus 12.07% for second-place Sánchez—a near-5% gap—bolstering trader consensus on a 5%+ margin while a tight second-place battle elevates the <5% risk to 14.4%. No other outcomes garner traction amid her dominant lead.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Hacim
$286,506Bitiş Tarihi
12 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum following Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12-13 consistently position Keiko Fujimori first with 16.5-17.1% of valid votes, leading challengers like Rafael López Aliaga, Roberto Sánchez Palomino, and Jorge Nieto by approximately 4-5 percentage points in a fragmented 35-candidate field requiring a runoff on June 7. Logistical delays in ballot delivery extended voting and slowed official ONPE tallies to 91% processed as of April 15, confirming her 17.04% versus 12.07% for second-place Sánchez—a near-5% gap—bolstering trader consensus on a 5%+ margin while a tight second-place battle elevates the <5% risk to 14.4%. No other outcomes garner traction amid her dominant lead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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