Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability to form government in the 2026 Quebec general election, required by October 5, propelled by the Coalition Avenir Québec's collapse following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings. Latest Léger polls from early April show PQ and Québec Liberal Party virtually tied in popular vote at 32-33%, with PCQ at 12-13%, QS at 8-12%, and CAQ at 8-13%, but first-past-the-post dynamics and PQ's regional strength yield seat projections of 54-72 for PQ versus 39-57 for PLQ per 338Canada aggregates. Christine Fréchette's April 12 CAQ leadership victory and premiership assumption have yet to reverse her party's slide, keeping odds low at 9%, while PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard sustain a competitive race ahead of potential snap election or National Assembly resumption May 5.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiQuebec Genel Seçim Galibi
Quebec Genel Seçim Galibi
PQ 55%
PLQ 36%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$423,741 Hac.
$423,741 Hac.
5 Eki 2026
PQ
55%
PLQ
36%
CAQ
9%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 55%
PLQ 36%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$423,741 Hac.
$423,741 Hac.
5 Eki 2026
PQ
$41,716 Hac.
55%
PLQ
$47,611 Hac.
36%
CAQ
$42,701 Hac.
9%
PCQ
$138,219 Hac.
<1%
PVQ
$105,358 Hac.
<1%
QS
$48,137 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability to form government in the 2026 Quebec general election, required by October 5, propelled by the Coalition Avenir Québec's collapse following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings. Latest Léger polls from early April show PQ and Québec Liberal Party virtually tied in popular vote at 32-33%, with PCQ at 12-13%, QS at 8-12%, and CAQ at 8-13%, but first-past-the-post dynamics and PQ's regional strength yield seat projections of 54-72 for PQ versus 39-57 for PLQ per 338Canada aggregates. Christine Fréchette's April 12 CAQ leadership victory and premiership assumption have yet to reverse her party's slide, keeping odds low at 9%, while PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard sustain a competitive race ahead of potential snap election or National Assembly resumption May 5.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Hacim
$423,741Bitiş Tarihi
5 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability to form government in the 2026 Quebec general election, required by October 5, propelled by the Coalition Avenir Québec's collapse following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings. Latest Léger polls from early April show PQ and Québec Liberal Party virtually tied in popular vote at 32-33%, with PCQ at 12-13%, QS at 8-12%, and CAQ at 8-13%, but first-past-the-post dynamics and PQ's regional strength yield seat projections of 54-72 for PQ versus 39-57 for PLQ per 338Canada aggregates. Christine Fréchette's April 12 CAQ leadership victory and premiership assumption have yet to reverse her party's slide, keeping odds low at 9%, while PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard sustain a competitive race ahead of potential snap election or National Assembly resumption May 5.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Hacim
$423,741Bitiş Tarihi
5 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability to form government in the 2026 Quebec general election, required by October 5, propelled by the Coalition Avenir Québec's collapse following Premier François Legault's January resignation amid dismal approval ratings. Latest Léger polls from early April show PQ and Québec Liberal Party virtually tied in popular vote at 32-33%, with PCQ at 12-13%, QS at 8-12%, and CAQ at 8-13%, but first-past-the-post dynamics and PQ's regional strength yield seat projections of 54-72 for PQ versus 39-57 for PLQ per 338Canada aggregates. Christine Fréchette's April 12 CAQ leadership victory and premiership assumption have yet to reverse her party's slide, keeping odds low at 9%, while PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard sustain a competitive race ahead of potential snap election or National Assembly resumption May 5.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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