Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.9% implied probability for Republicans achieving a trifecta—GOP control of the White House, House, and a Senate supermajority of 60+ seats—after the 2026 midterms, driven by steep mathematical hurdles and historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate edge but must defend 20 seats while flipping at least seven Democratic-held ones in a map with limited pickup opportunities, as highlighted by recent Cook Political Report shifts tilting four battleground races toward Democrats and early forecasts rating only a handful as competitive. House projections show tightening races amid backlash potential, further dimming trifecta odds. Realistic shifts would require major Democratic retirements, scandals, or a national Republican wave, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$67,601 Hac.
$67,601 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Evet
$67,601 Hac.
$67,601 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.9% implied probability for Republicans achieving a trifecta—GOP control of the White House, House, and a Senate supermajority of 60+ seats—after the 2026 midterms, driven by steep mathematical hurdles and historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate edge but must defend 20 seats while flipping at least seven Democratic-held ones in a map with limited pickup opportunities, as highlighted by recent Cook Political Report shifts tilting four battleground races toward Democrats and early forecasts rating only a handful as competitive. House projections show tightening races amid backlash potential, further dimming trifecta odds. Realistic shifts would require major Democratic retirements, scandals, or a national Republican wave, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Hacim
$67,601Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.9% implied probability for Republicans achieving a trifecta—GOP control of the White House, House, and a Senate supermajority of 60+ seats—after the 2026 midterms, driven by steep mathematical hurdles and historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate edge but must defend 20 seats while flipping at least seven Democratic-held ones in a map with limited pickup opportunities, as highlighted by recent Cook Political Report shifts tilting four battleground races toward Democrats and early forecasts rating only a handful as competitive. House projections show tightening races amid backlash potential, further dimming trifecta odds. Realistic shifts would require major Democratic retirements, scandals, or a national Republican wave, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Hacim
$67,601Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.9% implied probability for Republicans achieving a trifecta—GOP control of the White House, House, and a Senate supermajority of 60+ seats—after the 2026 midterms, driven by steep mathematical hurdles and historical midterm dynamics disadvantaging the president's party. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate edge but must defend 20 seats while flipping at least seven Democratic-held ones in a map with limited pickup opportunities, as highlighted by recent Cook Political Report shifts tilting four battleground races toward Democrats and early forecasts rating only a handful as competitive. House projections show tightening races amid backlash potential, further dimming trifecta odds. Realistic shifts would require major Democratic retirements, scandals, or a national Republican wave, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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