Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed DOJ indictment, FBI investigation, or formal charges following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral over pre-war communications with Iranian contacts under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Trump administration officials dismissed those allegations as unfounded, and no official actions or public announcements have emerged in the intervening month. High-profile procedural barriers, including evidentiary requirements and political scrutiny, further diminish near-term arrest likelihood, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds before resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 May 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed DOJ indictment, FBI investigation, or formal charges following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral over pre-war communications with Iranian contacts under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Trump administration officials dismissed those allegations as unfounded, and no official actions or public announcements have emerged in the intervening month. High-profile procedural barriers, including evidentiary requirements and political scrutiny, further diminish near-term arrest likelihood, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Hacim
$1,636Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed DOJ indictment, FBI investigation, or formal charges following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral over pre-war communications with Iranian contacts under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Trump administration officials dismissed those allegations as unfounded, and no official actions or public announcements have emerged in the intervening month. High-profile procedural barriers, including evidentiary requirements and political scrutiny, further diminish near-term arrest likelihood, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$1,636Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of any confirmed DOJ indictment, FBI investigation, or formal charges following his mid-March claims of a CIA criminal referral over pre-war communications with Iranian contacts under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Trump administration officials dismissed those allegations as unfounded, and no official actions or public announcements have emerged in the intervening month. High-profile procedural barriers, including evidentiary requirements and political scrutiny, further diminish near-term arrest likelihood, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds before resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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