The collapse of marathon direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad after 21 hours on April 11, without agreement on core issues like curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, dismantling missile programs, or sanctions relief, has driven trader consensus to 70.6% against a deal by April 30. Iran rejected US proposals for a 20-year nuclear suspension and broader regional concessions, including Strait of Hormuz access, while President Trump signaled potential escalation via port blockades and strikes on energy sites. Though a second round of talks is under consideration amid ceasefire pressures, persistent gaps and historical difficulties in rapid nuclear pacts leave limited time for resolution, underscoring the market's skepticism.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Nisan'a kadar ABD - İran nükleer anlaşması?
30 Nisan'a kadar ABD - İran nükleer anlaşması?
Evet
$1,267,853 Hac.
$1,267,853 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$1,267,853 Hac.
$1,267,853 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The collapse of marathon direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad after 21 hours on April 11, without agreement on core issues like curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, dismantling missile programs, or sanctions relief, has driven trader consensus to 70.6% against a deal by April 30. Iran rejected US proposals for a 20-year nuclear suspension and broader regional concessions, including Strait of Hormuz access, while President Trump signaled potential escalation via port blockades and strikes on energy sites. Though a second round of talks is under consideration amid ceasefire pressures, persistent gaps and historical difficulties in rapid nuclear pacts leave limited time for resolution, underscoring the market's skepticism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Hacim
$1,267,853Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The collapse of marathon direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad after 21 hours on April 11, without agreement on core issues like curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, dismantling missile programs, or sanctions relief, has driven trader consensus to 70.6% against a deal by April 30. Iran rejected US proposals for a 20-year nuclear suspension and broader regional concessions, including Strait of Hormuz access, while President Trump signaled potential escalation via port blockades and strikes on energy sites. Though a second round of talks is under consideration amid ceasefire pressures, persistent gaps and historical difficulties in rapid nuclear pacts leave limited time for resolution, underscoring the market's skepticism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Hacim
$1,267,853Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The collapse of marathon direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad after 21 hours on April 11, without agreement on core issues like curbing Iran's nuclear enrichment, dismantling missile programs, or sanctions relief, has driven trader consensus to 70.6% against a deal by April 30. Iran rejected US proposals for a 20-year nuclear suspension and broader regional concessions, including Strait of Hormuz access, while President Trump signaled potential escalation via port blockades and strikes on energy sites. Though a second round of talks is under consideration amid ceasefire pressures, persistent gaps and historical difficulties in rapid nuclear pacts leave limited time for resolution, underscoring the market's skepticism.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular