Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, as Tehran rejected American demands for zero nuclear enrichment and missile restrictions while insisting on full sanctions relief, reparations, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The two-week ceasefire, announced April 8 by President Trump, expires around April 22, with mediators including Pakistan urging a second round of discussions possibly within days to prevent escalation. Trader sentiment remains cautious on a permanent peace deal due to these core sticking points and historical diplomatic impasses, prioritizing short-term de-escalation over comprehensive resolution amid ongoing military posturing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD x İran kalıcı barış anlaşması...?
ABD x İran kalıcı barış anlaşması...?
$7,632,764 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
22 Nisan
22%
30 Nisan
38%
31 Mayıs
60%
30 Haziran
74%
$7,632,764 Hac.
22 Nisan
$5,063,538 Hac.
22%
30 Nisan
$1,403,271 Hac.
38%
31 Mayıs
$940,364 Hac.
60%
30 Haziran
$226,315 Hac.
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, as Tehran rejected American demands for zero nuclear enrichment and missile restrictions while insisting on full sanctions relief, reparations, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The two-week ceasefire, announced April 8 by President Trump, expires around April 22, with mediators including Pakistan urging a second round of discussions possibly within days to prevent escalation. Trader sentiment remains cautious on a permanent peace deal due to these core sticking points and historical diplomatic impasses, prioritizing short-term de-escalation over comprehensive resolution amid ongoing military posturing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Hacim
$7,632,764Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, as Tehran rejected American demands for zero nuclear enrichment and missile restrictions while insisting on full sanctions relief, reparations, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The two-week ceasefire, announced April 8 by President Trump, expires around April 22, with mediators including Pakistan urging a second round of discussions possibly within days to prevent escalation. Trader sentiment remains cautious on a permanent peace deal due to these core sticking points and historical diplomatic impasses, prioritizing short-term de-escalation over comprehensive resolution amid ongoing military posturing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$7,632,764Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, as Tehran rejected American demands for zero nuclear enrichment and missile restrictions while insisting on full sanctions relief, reparations, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The two-week ceasefire, announced April 8 by President Trump, expires around April 22, with mediators including Pakistan urging a second round of discussions possibly within days to prevent escalation. Trader sentiment remains cautious on a permanent peace deal due to these core sticking points and historical diplomatic impasses, prioritizing short-term de-escalation over comprehensive resolution amid ongoing military posturing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular