Trader consensus favors United Russia at 65.5% implied probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its current 315-seat supermajority and dominance in single-member districts despite recent polling declines to 30-38% on party lists amid inflation pressures on food and utilities. New People's 29% odds stem from its rapid rise to 12-16% in April WCIOM and FOM surveys—overtaking LDPR and KPRF—building from just 15 seats via criticism of mobile disruptions and permitted opposition positioning, potentially yielding 20-40 net gains. The hybrid system (225 proportional, 225 first-past-the-post) and Kremlin-backed primaries favor incumbents, though electronic voting expansions and redistricting in occupied regions add uncertainty ahead of candidate approvals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiRusya Parlamento Seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi hangi parti kazanacak?
Rusya Parlamento Seçimlerinde en fazla sandalyeyi hangi parti kazanacak?
Birleşik Rusya (ER) 66%
Yeni İnsanlar (NL) 29.0%
Rusya Liberal Demokrat Partisi (LDPR) 5.1%
Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF) <1%
$5,472,548 Hac.
$5,472,548 Hac.
30 Eyl 2026
Birleşik Rusya (ER)
66%
Yeni İnsanlar (NL)
29%
Rusya Liberal Demokrat Partisi (LDPR)
5%
Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF)
<1%
Adalet İçin Rusya – Gerçek İçin (SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
Vatandaş Platformu (GP)
<1%
Birleşik Rusya (ER) 66%
Yeni İnsanlar (NL) 29.0%
Rusya Liberal Demokrat Partisi (LDPR) 5.1%
Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF) <1%
$5,472,548 Hac.
$5,472,548 Hac.
30 Eyl 2026
Birleşik Rusya (ER)
$1,508,055 Hac.
66%
Yeni İnsanlar (NL)
$494,181 Hac.
29%
Rusya Liberal Demokrat Partisi (LDPR)
$2,128,851 Hac.
5%
Rusya Federasyonu Komünist Partisi (KPRF)
$364,374 Hac.
<1%
Adalet İçin Rusya – Gerçek İçin (SRZP)
$328,572 Hac.
<1%
Rodina
$360,952 Hac.
<1%
Vatandaş Platformu (GP)
$287,563 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia at 65.5% implied probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its current 315-seat supermajority and dominance in single-member districts despite recent polling declines to 30-38% on party lists amid inflation pressures on food and utilities. New People's 29% odds stem from its rapid rise to 12-16% in April WCIOM and FOM surveys—overtaking LDPR and KPRF—building from just 15 seats via criticism of mobile disruptions and permitted opposition positioning, potentially yielding 20-40 net gains. The hybrid system (225 proportional, 225 first-past-the-post) and Kremlin-backed primaries favor incumbents, though electronic voting expansions and redistricting in occupied regions add uncertainty ahead of candidate approvals.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Hacim
$5,472,548Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia at 65.5% implied probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its current 315-seat supermajority and dominance in single-member districts despite recent polling declines to 30-38% on party lists amid inflation pressures on food and utilities. New People's 29% odds stem from its rapid rise to 12-16% in April WCIOM and FOM surveys—overtaking LDPR and KPRF—building from just 15 seats via criticism of mobile disruptions and permitted opposition positioning, potentially yielding 20-40 net gains. The hybrid system (225 proportional, 225 first-past-the-post) and Kremlin-backed primaries favor incumbents, though electronic voting expansions and redistricting in occupied regions add uncertainty ahead of candidate approvals.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Hacim
$5,472,548Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia at 65.5% implied probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its current 315-seat supermajority and dominance in single-member districts despite recent polling declines to 30-38% on party lists amid inflation pressures on food and utilities. New People's 29% odds stem from its rapid rise to 12-16% in April WCIOM and FOM surveys—overtaking LDPR and KPRF—building from just 15 seats via criticism of mobile disruptions and permitted opposition positioning, potentially yielding 20-40 net gains. The hybrid system (225 proportional, 225 first-past-the-post) and Kremlin-backed primaries favor incumbents, though electronic voting expansions and redistricting in occupied regions add uncertainty ahead of candidate approvals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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