In California's 11th Congressional District's top-two primary on June 2, trader consensus narrowly favors state Sen. Scott Wiener at 45.5% implied probability to finish first, with Saikat Chakrabarti close at 37.7%, reflecting a recent English-only poll placing them far ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan at 11.3% amid San Francisco's moderate-progressive Democratic divide for Nancy Pelosi's open seat. Wiener's edge stems from the California Democratic Party endorsement in February, strong fundraising, and moderate stances highlighted in early April debates on issues like Iron Dome funding, while Chakrabarti's self-funding as a progressive challenger and policy-wonk appeal keep the race tight. Further polls, major endorsements, or precinct turnout could create separation in this crowded 11-candidate field.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiScott Wiener 46%
Saikat Chakrabarti 29.2%
Connie Chan 5.9%
Jingchao Xiong <1%
$335,896 Hac.
$335,896 Hac.
Scott Wiener
46%
Saikat Chakrabarti
37%
Connie Chan
11%
Jingchao Xiong
<1%
Darren Helton
<1%
David Ganezer
<1%
Cole Bettles
<1%
Scott Wiener 46%
Saikat Chakrabarti 29.2%
Connie Chan 5.9%
Jingchao Xiong <1%
$335,896 Hac.
$335,896 Hac.
Scott Wiener
46%
Saikat Chakrabarti
37%
Connie Chan
11%
Jingchao Xiong
<1%
Darren Helton
<1%
David Ganezer
<1%
Cole Bettles
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In California's 11th Congressional District's top-two primary on June 2, trader consensus narrowly favors state Sen. Scott Wiener at 45.5% implied probability to finish first, with Saikat Chakrabarti close at 37.7%, reflecting a recent English-only poll placing them far ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan at 11.3% amid San Francisco's moderate-progressive Democratic divide for Nancy Pelosi's open seat. Wiener's edge stems from the California Democratic Party endorsement in February, strong fundraising, and moderate stances highlighted in early April debates on issues like Iron Dome funding, while Chakrabarti's self-funding as a progressive challenger and policy-wonk appeal keep the race tight. Further polls, major endorsements, or precinct turnout could create separation in this crowded 11-candidate field.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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