Trader consensus on a 77.5% implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the distinction between early-year targeted military actions and full-scale ground invasions, with January strikes on Venezuelan targets and President Maduro's capture via special operations—framed as a law enforcement effort—stopping short of boots-on-the-ground occupation. Subsequent de-escalation through diplomatic alliances, regional summits like Shield of the Americas, and sustained Caribbean naval deployments for drug interdiction and countering Chinese influence have quelled invasion rhetoric. Absent new escalatory signals such as large-scale troop mobilizations or congressional authorizations amid domestic priorities, traders see limited paths to broader military intervention before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$207,038 Hac.
$207,038 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$207,038 Hac.
$207,038 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on a 77.5% implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the distinction between early-year targeted military actions and full-scale ground invasions, with January strikes on Venezuelan targets and President Maduro's capture via special operations—framed as a law enforcement effort—stopping short of boots-on-the-ground occupation. Subsequent de-escalation through diplomatic alliances, regional summits like Shield of the Americas, and sustained Caribbean naval deployments for drug interdiction and countering Chinese influence have quelled invasion rhetoric. Absent new escalatory signals such as large-scale troop mobilizations or congressional authorizations amid domestic priorities, traders see limited paths to broader military intervention before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Hacim
$207,038Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on a 77.5% implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the distinction between early-year targeted military actions and full-scale ground invasions, with January strikes on Venezuelan targets and President Maduro's capture via special operations—framed as a law enforcement effort—stopping short of boots-on-the-ground occupation. Subsequent de-escalation through diplomatic alliances, regional summits like Shield of the Americas, and sustained Caribbean naval deployments for drug interdiction and countering Chinese influence have quelled invasion rhetoric. Absent new escalatory signals such as large-scale troop mobilizations or congressional authorizations amid domestic priorities, traders see limited paths to broader military intervention before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Hacim
$207,038Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 77.5% implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the distinction between early-year targeted military actions and full-scale ground invasions, with January strikes on Venezuelan targets and President Maduro's capture via special operations—framed as a law enforcement effort—stopping short of boots-on-the-ground occupation. Subsequent de-escalation through diplomatic alliances, regional summits like Shield of the Americas, and sustained Caribbean naval deployments for drug interdiction and countering Chinese influence have quelled invasion rhetoric. Absent new escalatory signals such as large-scale troop mobilizations or congressional authorizations amid domestic priorities, traders see limited paths to broader military intervention before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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