Sydney Gruters secured the Republican nomination in the August primary for the open FL-16 seat vacated by retiring incumbent Vern Buchanan, while Kelly Kirschner advanced on the Democratic side in a crowded field. The newly redrawn district carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index, incorporates Manatee County and portions of surrounding Gulf Coast areas, and features an independent candidate in Mark Davis. A late-August poll showed Gruters narrowly ahead, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, though the DCCC has listed it among districts in play. These factors sustain tight trader pricing around candidate matchups and favor Republican margins in the 6-15 point range, with separation likely to emerge from fall campaign spending, turnout in coastal versus inland counties, and any late national political shifts before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFL-16 House Election Margin of Victory
FL-16 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 12-15% 22%
Republican 0-3% 14%
Republican 6-9% 13%
Republican 9-12% 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2027
Republican 18%+
5%
Republican 15-18%
8%
Republican 12-15%
22%
Republican 9-12%
12%
Republican 6-9%
13%
Republican 3-6%
7%
Republican 0-3%
14%
Democrat 0-3%
6%
Democrat 3-6%
4%
Democrat 6%+
5%
Republican 12-15% 22%
Republican 0-3% 14%
Republican 6-9% 13%
Republican 9-12% 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2027
Republican 18%+
$197 Обс.
5%
Republican 15-18%
$233 Обс.
8%
Republican 12-15%
$233 Обс.
22%
Republican 9-12%
$163 Обс.
12%
Republican 6-9%
$348 Обс.
13%
Republican 3-6%
$144 Обс.
7%
Republican 0-3%
$278 Обс.
14%
Democrat 0-3%
$197 Обс.
6%
Democrat 3-6%
$149 Обс.
4%
Democrat 6%+
$134 Обс.
5%
The 2026 FL-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sydney Gruters secured the Republican nomination in the August primary for the open FL-16 seat vacated by retiring incumbent Vern Buchanan, while Kelly Kirschner advanced on the Democratic side in a crowded field. The newly redrawn district carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index, incorporates Manatee County and portions of surrounding Gulf Coast areas, and features an independent candidate in Mark Davis. A late-August poll showed Gruters narrowly ahead, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, though the DCCC has listed it among districts in play. These factors sustain tight trader pricing around candidate matchups and favor Republican margins in the 6-15 point range, with separation likely to emerge from fall campaign spending, turnout in coastal versus inland counties, and any late national political shifts before the November 3 general election.
The 2026 FL-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,076Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 4:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sydney Gruters secured the Republican nomination in the August primary for the open FL-16 seat vacated by retiring incumbent Vern Buchanan, while Kelly Kirschner advanced on the Democratic side in a crowded field. The newly redrawn district carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index, incorporates Manatee County and portions of surrounding Gulf Coast areas, and features an independent candidate in Mark Davis. A late-August poll showed Gruters narrowly ahead, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, though the DCCC has listed it among districts in play. These factors sustain tight trader pricing around candidate matchups and favor Republican margins in the 6-15 point range, with separation likely to emerge from fall campaign spending, turnout in coastal versus inland counties, and any late national political shifts before the November 3 general election.
The 2026 FL-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$2,076Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 4:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Sydney Gruters secured the Republican nomination in the August primary for the open FL-16 seat vacated by retiring incumbent Vern Buchanan, while Kelly Kirschner advanced on the Democratic side in a crowded field. The newly redrawn district carries an R+6 Partisan Voter Index, incorporates Manatee County and portions of surrounding Gulf Coast areas, and features an independent candidate in Mark Davis. A late-August poll showed Gruters narrowly ahead, and forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, though the DCCC has listed it among districts in play. These factors sustain tight trader pricing around candidate matchups and favor Republican margins in the 6-15 point range, with separation likely to emerge from fall campaign spending, turnout in coastal versus inland counties, and any late national political shifts before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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