Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting ensemble models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 31 most likely in the 29–31 °C range, reflecting partial cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture that will limit strong daytime heating. With August climatological normals near 31 °C, the current pattern shows slightly suppressed insolation and higher humidity that caps peak values below recent heat-wave levels observed earlier in the month. Model spread across global and regional runs creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C, as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture remain the dominant variables. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution thresholds for the day’s official high.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
30°C 34%
29°C 25%
31°C 22%
28°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
9%
28°C
12%
29°C
25%
30°C
25%
31°C
22%
32°C
7%
33°C
6%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 34%
29°C 25%
31°C 22%
28°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Обс.
1%
26°C
$0 Обс.
1%
27°C
$100 Обс.
9%
28°C
$65 Обс.
12%
29°C
$132 Обс.
25%
30°C
$29 Обс.
25%
31°C
$0 Обс.
22%
32°C
$10 Обс.
7%
33°C
$0 Обс.
6%
34°C
$0 Обс.
6%
35°C or higher
$0 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting ensemble models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 31 most likely in the 29–31 °C range, reflecting partial cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture that will limit strong daytime heating. With August climatological normals near 31 °C, the current pattern shows slightly suppressed insolation and higher humidity that caps peak values below recent heat-wave levels observed earlier in the month. Model spread across global and regional runs creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C, as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture remain the dominant variables. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution thresholds for the day’s official high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$341Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting ensemble models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 31 most likely in the 29–31 °C range, reflecting partial cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture that will limit strong daytime heating. With August climatological normals near 31 °C, the current pattern shows slightly suppressed insolation and higher humidity that caps peak values below recent heat-wave levels observed earlier in the month. Model spread across global and regional runs creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C, as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture remain the dominant variables. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution thresholds for the day’s official high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$341Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting ensemble models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 31 most likely in the 29–31 °C range, reflecting partial cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture that will limit strong daytime heating. With August climatological normals near 31 °C, the current pattern shows slightly suppressed insolation and higher humidity that caps peak values below recent heat-wave levels observed earlier in the month. Model spread across global and regional runs creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes while assigning low odds to extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C, as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture remain the dominant variables. Updated JMA guidance and next model cycles will refine resolution thresholds for the day’s official high.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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