Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a mostly cloudy to overcast day for Tokyo on September 18, with light northerly winds and scattered drizzle limiting daytime heating. These conditions favor a maximum near 23–25 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on subtle variations in model consensus regarding cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any clearing; stronger onshore flow or thicker stratiform cover would cap readings closer to 23 °C, while modest insolation could push toward 25 °C. September climatology shows average maxima near 26–27 °C, but the current post-frontal pattern and elevated humidity are suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model runs will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
24°C 39%
25°C 29%
23°C 18%
26°C 9%
НОВЕ
$11,982 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,982 Обс.
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
18%
24°C
39%
25°C
29%
26°C
9%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 39%
25°C 29%
23°C 18%
26°C 9%
НОВЕ
$11,982 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,982 Обс.
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
$1,379 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$392 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$393 Обс.
2%
22°C
$457 Обс.
4%
23°C
$2,687 Обс.
18%
24°C
$1,454 Обс.
39%
25°C
$2,138 Обс.
29%
26°C
$1,317 Обс.
9%
27°C
$397 Обс.
2%
28°C
$643 Обс.
1%
29°C or higher
$995 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a mostly cloudy to overcast day for Tokyo on September 18, with light northerly winds and scattered drizzle limiting daytime heating. These conditions favor a maximum near 23–25 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on subtle variations in model consensus regarding cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any clearing; stronger onshore flow or thicker stratiform cover would cap readings closer to 23 °C, while modest insolation could push toward 25 °C. September climatology shows average maxima near 26–27 °C, but the current post-frontal pattern and elevated humidity are suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model runs will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,982Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a mostly cloudy to overcast day for Tokyo on September 18, with light northerly winds and scattered drizzle limiting daytime heating. These conditions favor a maximum near 23–25 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on subtle variations in model consensus regarding cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any clearing; stronger onshore flow or thicker stratiform cover would cap readings closer to 23 °C, while modest insolation could push toward 25 °C. September climatology shows average maxima near 26–27 °C, but the current post-frontal pattern and elevated humidity are suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model runs will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$11,982Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a mostly cloudy to overcast day for Tokyo on September 18, with light northerly winds and scattered drizzle limiting daytime heating. These conditions favor a maximum near 23–25 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on subtle variations in model consensus regarding cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise timing of any clearing; stronger onshore flow or thicker stratiform cover would cap readings closer to 23 °C, while modest insolation could push toward 25 °C. September climatology shows average maxima near 26–27 °C, but the current post-frontal pattern and elevated humidity are suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model runs will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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