Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a low near 56–57 °F at San Francisco International Airport on August 30, aligning with the market’s top outcomes. Persistent marine-layer stratus and moderate onshore flow from the cool California Current limit radiational cooling, while light winds and variable boundary-layer moisture keep overnight temperatures clustered in the mid- to upper 50s. Historical climatology shows a 56 °F average low for the date, and current GFS/ECMWF spreads indicate only modest differences in cloud cover or wind that could tip readings a degree or two either way. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to the 56–57 °F and 58–59 °F bins, with lower probabilities on more extreme cooling or warming scenarios.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 30?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 30?
62-63°F 49%
64-65°F 37%
56-57°F 34%
58-59°F 30%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
47°F or below
2%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
26%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
34%
58-59°F
30%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
37%
66°F or higher
14%
62-63°F 49%
64-65°F 37%
56-57°F 34%
58-59°F 30%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
47°F or below
$263 Обс.
2%
48-49°F
$11 Обс.
2%
50-51°F
$0 Обс.
26%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
25%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
26%
56-57°F
$0 Обс.
34%
58-59°F
$0 Обс.
30%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
26%
62-63°F
$20 Обс.
49%
64-65°F
$75 Обс.
37%
66°F or higher
$10 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a low near 56–57 °F at San Francisco International Airport on August 30, aligning with the market’s top outcomes. Persistent marine-layer stratus and moderate onshore flow from the cool California Current limit radiational cooling, while light winds and variable boundary-layer moisture keep overnight temperatures clustered in the mid- to upper 50s. Historical climatology shows a 56 °F average low for the date, and current GFS/ECMWF spreads indicate only modest differences in cloud cover or wind that could tip readings a degree or two either way. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to the 56–57 °F and 58–59 °F bins, with lower probabilities on more extreme cooling or warming scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$379Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a low near 56–57 °F at San Francisco International Airport on August 30, aligning with the market’s top outcomes. Persistent marine-layer stratus and moderate onshore flow from the cool California Current limit radiational cooling, while light winds and variable boundary-layer moisture keep overnight temperatures clustered in the mid- to upper 50s. Historical climatology shows a 56 °F average low for the date, and current GFS/ECMWF spreads indicate only modest differences in cloud cover or wind that could tip readings a degree or two either way. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to the 56–57 °F and 58–59 °F bins, with lower probabilities on more extreme cooling or warming scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$379Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a low near 56–57 °F at San Francisco International Airport on August 30, aligning with the market’s top outcomes. Persistent marine-layer stratus and moderate onshore flow from the cool California Current limit radiational cooling, while light winds and variable boundary-layer moisture keep overnight temperatures clustered in the mid- to upper 50s. Historical climatology shows a 56 °F average low for the date, and current GFS/ECMWF spreads indicate only modest differences in cloud cover or wind that could tip readings a degree or two either way. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to the 56–57 °F and 58–59 °F bins, with lower probabilities on more extreme cooling or warming scenarios.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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