Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$1,744 Обс.
$1,744 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$1,744 Обс.
$1,744 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
7°C or below
$196 Обс.
No
8°C
$10 Обс.
No
9°C
$551 Обс.
No
10°C
$205 Обс.
No
11°C
$86 Обс.
No
12°C
$160 Обс.
Yes
13°C
$276 Обс.
No
14°C
$170 Обс.
No
15°C
$36 Обс.
No
16°C
$32 Обс.
No
17°C or higher
$22 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,744Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,744Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Forecast models from sources like GFS consistently project an overnight low near 12°C in Warsaw on September 15, driven by clear skies, light winds under high pressure around 1020 hPa, and radiative cooling typical for mid-September. This setup favors the 12°C outcome at 90% implied probability, with historical September minima often ranging 10–14°C under similar stable conditions. Recent observations show evening temperatures falling from 14–16°C toward 12–13°C by dawn, with minimal cloud cover limiting heat retention. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current guidance, as any unexpected increase in humidity or wind could nudge readings slightly higher before official verification.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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