**Traders assign a 95.9% probability to Michigan voters rejecting the automatic constitutional convention question on the November 3, 2026 ballot.** This stems primarily from consistent historical precedent—voters defeated similar measures in 1978, 1994, and 2010 by margins exceeding 2-to-1—and recent bipartisan opposition from figures including former Democratic Congressman Dan Kildee and former Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette, who have warned of a potentially divisive and interest-driven process. A late-August poll showed 47% support, 31% opposition, and 22% undecided among likely voters, but undecideds have historically broken against such proposals. Limited organized support and concerns over a full rewrite of the 1963 constitution further reinforce the market consensus. A reversal would require a sharp, sustained polling shift or unexpected turnout surge in the final weeks before the election.