Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid surging inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is March 2026 CPI data released April 10, showing annual inflation at 3.3%—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to geopolitical tensions and oil shocks. Chair Powell emphasized data-dependent policy in his March 18 press conference, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026 if progress resumes. This strong hold positioning could be challenged by softening labor market signals, such as rising unemployment ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, or further cooling in core inflation metrics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtQuyết định của Fed trong tháng 6?
Quyết định của Fed trong tháng 6?
Không thay đổi 92%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 6%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 2.1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 1.6%
$8,488,069 KL.
$8,488,069 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
2%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
6%
Không thay đổi
92%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
2%
Tăng 50+ điểm cơ bản
1%
Không thay đổi 92%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 6%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 2.1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 1.6%
$8,488,069 KL.
$8,488,069 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$2,446,810 KL.
2%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$1,289,217 KL.
6%
Không thay đổi
$1,573,154 KL.
92%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$1,721,412 KL.
2%
Tăng 50+ điểm cơ bản
$1,457,821 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid surging inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is March 2026 CPI data released April 10, showing annual inflation at 3.3%—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to geopolitical tensions and oil shocks. Chair Powell emphasized data-dependent policy in his March 18 press conference, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026 if progress resumes. This strong hold positioning could be challenged by softening labor market signals, such as rising unemployment ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, or further cooling in core inflation metrics.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,488,069Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid surging inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is March 2026 CPI data released April 10, showing annual inflation at 3.3%—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to geopolitical tensions and oil shocks. Chair Powell emphasized data-dependent policy in his March 18 press conference, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026 if progress resumes. This strong hold positioning could be challenged by softening labor market signals, such as rising unemployment ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, or further cooling in core inflation metrics.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$8,488,069Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid surging inflation pressures. The primary catalyst is March 2026 CPI data released April 10, showing annual inflation at 3.3%—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike tied to geopolitical tensions and oil shocks. Chair Powell emphasized data-dependent policy in his March 18 press conference, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026 if progress resumes. This strong hold positioning could be challenged by softening labor market signals, such as rising unemployment ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC, or further cooling in core inflation metrics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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