Latest ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a highest temperature of 16–18°C in Cape Town on September 15, driven by persistent northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a passing frontal system. These conditions limit daytime heating in the city’s Mediterranean spring climate, where September averages hover near 19°C but recent runs show suppressed maxima. Trader consensus, reflected in the 41.5% implied probability on 18°C and 26.5% on 17°C, aligns with this narrow range; probabilities drop sharply outside 16–19°C because model spread remains tight and no rapid clearing or warming trend is indicated ahead of resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Cape Town on September 15?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 15?
18°C 42%
17°C 26%
19°C 20%
16°C 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
3%
16°C
7%
17°C
26%
18°C
42%
19°C
20%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
18°C 42%
17°C 26%
19°C 20%
16°C 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
$40 KL.
1%
13°C
$10 KL.
2%
14°C
$10 KL.
4%
15°C
$77 KL.
3%
16°C
$308 KL.
7%
17°C
$1,176 KL.
26%
18°C
$1,602 KL.
42%
19°C
$1,131 KL.
20%
20°C
$102 KL.
4%
21°C
$53 KL.
2%
22°C or higher
$10 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a highest temperature of 16–18°C in Cape Town on September 15, driven by persistent northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a passing frontal system. These conditions limit daytime heating in the city’s Mediterranean spring climate, where September averages hover near 19°C but recent runs show suppressed maxima. Trader consensus, reflected in the 41.5% implied probability on 18°C and 26.5% on 17°C, aligns with this narrow range; probabilities drop sharply outside 16–19°C because model spread remains tight and no rapid clearing or warming trend is indicated ahead of resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,519Ngày kết thúc
Sep 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a highest temperature of 16–18°C in Cape Town on September 15, driven by persistent northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a passing frontal system. These conditions limit daytime heating in the city’s Mediterranean spring climate, where September averages hover near 19°C but recent runs show suppressed maxima. Trader consensus, reflected in the 41.5% implied probability on 18°C and 26.5% on 17°C, aligns with this narrow range; probabilities drop sharply outside 16–19°C because model spread remains tight and no rapid clearing or warming trend is indicated ahead of resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,519Ngày kết thúc
Sep 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to a highest temperature of 16–18°C in Cape Town on September 15, driven by persistent northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers associated with a passing frontal system. These conditions limit daytime heating in the city’s Mediterranean spring climate, where September averages hover near 19°C but recent runs show suppressed maxima. Trader consensus, reflected in the 41.5% implied probability on 18°C and 26.5% on 17°C, aligns with this narrow range; probabilities drop sharply outside 16–19°C because model spread remains tight and no rapid clearing or warming trend is indicated ahead of resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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