**Trader consensus centers on a 69–71°F minimum for Los Angeles on August 24, 2026, driven by a regional heat wave that suppressed typical nocturnal cooling.** Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 69°F low at both downtown Los Angeles and LAX, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–71°F bin (56%) and 68–69°F bin (29%). A persistent marine-layer inversion failed to develop strongly overnight, while warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the coast reduced the usual radiative cooling and stratus-driven chill. Daytime highs reached 84–98°F amid the broader Southern California heat wave, with minimal diurnal temperature drop as southwesterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight warmth near 69–70°F. Historical August minima at LAX average ~65°F, but the 2026 pattern deviated upward by 4–5°F due to the synoptic setup. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these verified measurements and forecast model consensus from the prior 24–48 hours, which showed little chance of dropping into the mid-60s or below.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Los Angeles on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on August 24?
70-71°F 99.5%
68-69°F 1.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
$3,367 KL.
$3,367 KL.
Aug 24, 2026
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
Yes
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
70-71°F 99.5%
68-69°F 1.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
$3,367 KL.
$3,367 KL.
Aug 24, 2026
61°F or below
$190 KL.
No
62-63°F
$245 KL.
No
64-65°F
$371 KL.
No
66-67°F
$268 KL.
No
68-69°F
$127 KL.
No
70-71°F
$566 KL.
Yes
72-73°F
$516 KL.
No
74-75°F
$120 KL.
No
76-77°F
$305 KL.
No
78-79°F
$200 KL.
No
80°F or higher
$460 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 69–71°F minimum for Los Angeles on August 24, 2026, driven by a regional heat wave that suppressed typical nocturnal cooling.**
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 69°F low at both downtown Los Angeles and LAX, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–71°F bin (56%) and 68–69°F bin (29%). A persistent marine-layer inversion failed to develop strongly overnight, while warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the coast reduced the usual radiative cooling and stratus-driven chill. Daytime highs reached 84–98°F amid the broader Southern California heat wave, with minimal diurnal temperature drop as southwesterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight warmth near 69–70°F.
Historical August minima at LAX average ~65°F, but the 2026 pattern deviated upward by 4–5°F due to the synoptic setup. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these verified measurements and forecast model consensus from the prior 24–48 hours, which showed little chance of dropping into the mid-60s or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,367Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 69–71°F minimum for Los Angeles on August 24, 2026, driven by a regional heat wave that suppressed typical nocturnal cooling.**
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 69°F low at both downtown Los Angeles and LAX, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–71°F bin (56%) and 68–69°F bin (29%). A persistent marine-layer inversion failed to develop strongly overnight, while warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the coast reduced the usual radiative cooling and stratus-driven chill. Daytime highs reached 84–98°F amid the broader Southern California heat wave, with minimal diurnal temperature drop as southwesterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight warmth near 69–70°F.
Historical August minima at LAX average ~65°F, but the 2026 pattern deviated upward by 4–5°F due to the synoptic setup. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these verified measurements and forecast model consensus from the prior 24–48 hours, which showed little chance of dropping into the mid-60s or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$3,367Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
**Trader consensus centers on a 69–71°F minimum for Los Angeles on August 24, 2026, driven by a regional heat wave that suppressed typical nocturnal cooling.** Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 69°F low at both downtown Los Angeles and LAX, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 70–71°F bin (56%) and 68–69°F bin (29%). A persistent marine-layer inversion failed to develop strongly overnight, while warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the coast reduced the usual radiative cooling and stratus-driven chill. Daytime highs reached 84–98°F amid the broader Southern California heat wave, with minimal diurnal temperature drop as southwesterly flow and elevated dew points maintained overnight warmth near 69–70°F. Historical August minima at LAX average ~65°F, but the 2026 pattern deviated upward by 4–5°F due to the synoptic setup. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these verified measurements and forecast model consensus from the prior 24–48 hours, which showed little chance of dropping into the mid-60s or below.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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