Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOregon Senate Election Winner
Oregon Senate Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$1,865 KL.
93%
Republican
$1,035 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,900Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$2,900Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 93% for a Democratic winner in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic lean—evident in Merkley's 17-point 2020 margin and Harris's 14-point presidential win—and his incumbency advantages amid weak Republican opposition. With primaries one month away on May 19, Merkley faces only a minor Democratic primary challenge from Paul Damian Wells, while the GOP primary remains fragmented among seven candidates, including state Sen. David Brock Smith and prior nominee Jo Rae Perkins, with no standout fundraiser or poll leader emerging since Smith's March entry and recent campaign updates. Scenarios to shift odds include a surprise Democratic primary upset, GOP consolidation behind a high-profile nominee, a personal scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in battleground areas.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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