Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in this deeply Republican state. Idaho's consistent voting patterns in federal races, combined with minimal Democratic organizational presence and fundraising, underpin the market's 96% consensus for a Republican victory on November 3. An independent candidate backed by some Democratic leaders entered after the Democratic nominee withdrew, yet early polling and historical margins continue to favor the GOP. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout or major national shifts affecting down-ballot races, though both remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIdaho Senate Election Winner
Idaho Senate Election Winner
$28,675 KL.
$28,675 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
5%
$28,675 KL.
$28,675 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$14,658 KL.
96%
Democrat
$14,016 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in this deeply Republican state. Idaho's consistent voting patterns in federal races, combined with minimal Democratic organizational presence and fundraising, underpin the market's 96% consensus for a Republican victory on November 3. An independent candidate backed by some Democratic leaders entered after the Democratic nominee withdrew, yet early polling and historical margins continue to favor the GOP. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout or major national shifts affecting down-ballot races, though both remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,675Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in this deeply Republican state. Idaho's consistent voting patterns in federal races, combined with minimal Democratic organizational presence and fundraising, underpin the market's 96% consensus for a Republican victory on November 3. An independent candidate backed by some Democratic leaders entered after the Democratic nominee withdrew, yet early polling and historical margins continue to favor the GOP. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout or major national shifts affecting down-ballot races, though both remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$28,675Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in this deeply Republican state. Idaho's consistent voting patterns in federal races, combined with minimal Democratic organizational presence and fundraising, underpin the market's 96% consensus for a Republican victory on November 3. An independent candidate backed by some Democratic leaders entered after the Democratic nominee withdrew, yet early polling and historical margins continue to favor the GOP. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout or major national shifts affecting down-ballot races, though both remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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