Recent monthly goods-and-services deficits near $56 billion, combined with the $901.5 billion 2025 annual total, anchor trader expectations around an 800–900 billion outcome for 2026. Tariff increases imposed in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports while prompting supply-chain shifts away from China, supporting modest narrowing consistent with CBO projections of the deficit falling as a share of GDP. Faster projected export growth, dollar depreciation, and continued capital-goods demand create the main variables that could push the figure into the 900 billion–1 trillion range or hold it below 800 billion. With no major new policy deadlines until later in the year, traders treat the current distribution as reflecting uncertainty over the net fiscal and trade-policy effects still unfolding.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$21,261 KL.
$21,261 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
10%
800–900B
34%
900B–1T
18%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$21,261 KL.
$21,261 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,813 KL.
5%
500–600B
$413 KL.
5%
600–700B
$505 KL.
9%
700–800B
$456 KL.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 KL.
34%
900B–1T
$984 KL.
18%
1T–1.1T
$447 KL.
5%
1.1T+
$635 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly goods-and-services deficits near $56 billion, combined with the $901.5 billion 2025 annual total, anchor trader expectations around an 800–900 billion outcome for 2026. Tariff increases imposed in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports while prompting supply-chain shifts away from China, supporting modest narrowing consistent with CBO projections of the deficit falling as a share of GDP. Faster projected export growth, dollar depreciation, and continued capital-goods demand create the main variables that could push the figure into the 900 billion–1 trillion range or hold it below 800 billion. With no major new policy deadlines until later in the year, traders treat the current distribution as reflecting uncertainty over the net fiscal and trade-policy effects still unfolding.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,261Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly goods-and-services deficits near $56 billion, combined with the $901.5 billion 2025 annual total, anchor trader expectations around an 800–900 billion outcome for 2026. Tariff increases imposed in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports while prompting supply-chain shifts away from China, supporting modest narrowing consistent with CBO projections of the deficit falling as a share of GDP. Faster projected export growth, dollar depreciation, and continued capital-goods demand create the main variables that could push the figure into the 900 billion–1 trillion range or hold it below 800 billion. With no major new policy deadlines until later in the year, traders treat the current distribution as reflecting uncertainty over the net fiscal and trade-policy effects still unfolding.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$21,261Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly goods-and-services deficits near $56 billion, combined with the $901.5 billion 2025 annual total, anchor trader expectations around an 800–900 billion outcome for 2026. Tariff increases imposed in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports while prompting supply-chain shifts away from China, supporting modest narrowing consistent with CBO projections of the deficit falling as a share of GDP. Faster projected export growth, dollar depreciation, and continued capital-goods demand create the main variables that could push the figure into the 900 billion–1 trillion range or hold it below 800 billion. With no major new policy deadlines until later in the year, traders treat the current distribution as reflecting uncertainty over the net fiscal and trade-policy effects still unfolding.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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