Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$21,256 KL.
$21,256 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
10%
800–900B
36%
900B–1T
18%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
4%
$21,256 KL.
$21,256 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,808 KL.
5%
500–600B
$413 KL.
5%
600–700B
$505 KL.
9%
700–800B
$456 KL.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 KL.
36%
900B–1T
$984 KL.
18%
1T–1.1T
$447 KL.
5%
1.1T+
$635 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,256Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$21,256Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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