Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$24,712 KL.
$24,712 KL.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
26%
800–900B
38%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
4%
$24,712 KL.
$24,712 KL.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 KL.
3%
500–600B
$454 KL.
5%
600–700B
$543 KL.
10%
700–800B
$720 KL.
26%
800–900B
$1,845 KL.
38%
900B–1T
$1,509 KL.
13%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 KL.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,712Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$24,712Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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