Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the sharp widening to a $77.6 billion deficit in May 2026 driven by record capital goods imports and a 3.2% export decline, anchors trader sentiment around the 800–900 billion range for the full-year goods-and-services deficit. This outcome commands a 46.5% implied probability as it aligns with the 2025 annual total of $901.5 billion and the $728 billion trailing twelve-month figure through May, while ongoing tariff measures and annual reviews with Canada and Mexico introduce uncertainty that could curb imports without symmetrically boosting exports. Strong domestic demand continues to support elevated import levels, consistent with CBO and private forecasts projecting modest narrowing as a share of GDP but still elevated nominal balances. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 release of June data and subsequent monthly reports through year-end that will refine the path relative to historical precedents near $900 billion.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$23,832 KL.
$23,832 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
24%
800–900B
47%
900B–1T
19%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$23,832 KL.
$23,832 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,833 KL.
4%
500–600B
$433 KL.
5%
600–700B
$533 KL.
9%
700–800B
$659 KL.
24%
800–900B
$1,499 KL.
47%
900B–1T
$1,340 KL.
19%
1T–1.1T
$1,442 KL.
5%
1.1T+
$1,093 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the sharp widening to a $77.6 billion deficit in May 2026 driven by record capital goods imports and a 3.2% export decline, anchors trader sentiment around the 800–900 billion range for the full-year goods-and-services deficit. This outcome commands a 46.5% implied probability as it aligns with the 2025 annual total of $901.5 billion and the $728 billion trailing twelve-month figure through May, while ongoing tariff measures and annual reviews with Canada and Mexico introduce uncertainty that could curb imports without symmetrically boosting exports. Strong domestic demand continues to support elevated import levels, consistent with CBO and private forecasts projecting modest narrowing as a share of GDP but still elevated nominal balances. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 release of June data and subsequent monthly reports through year-end that will refine the path relative to historical precedents near $900 billion.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,832Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the sharp widening to a $77.6 billion deficit in May 2026 driven by record capital goods imports and a 3.2% export decline, anchors trader sentiment around the 800–900 billion range for the full-year goods-and-services deficit. This outcome commands a 46.5% implied probability as it aligns with the 2025 annual total of $901.5 billion and the $728 billion trailing twelve-month figure through May, while ongoing tariff measures and annual reviews with Canada and Mexico introduce uncertainty that could curb imports without symmetrically boosting exports. Strong domestic demand continues to support elevated import levels, consistent with CBO and private forecasts projecting modest narrowing as a share of GDP but still elevated nominal balances. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 release of June data and subsequent monthly reports through year-end that will refine the path relative to historical precedents near $900 billion.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$23,832Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the sharp widening to a $77.6 billion deficit in May 2026 driven by record capital goods imports and a 3.2% export decline, anchors trader sentiment around the 800–900 billion range for the full-year goods-and-services deficit. This outcome commands a 46.5% implied probability as it aligns with the 2025 annual total of $901.5 billion and the $728 billion trailing twelve-month figure through May, while ongoing tariff measures and annual reviews with Canada and Mexico introduce uncertainty that could curb imports without symmetrically boosting exports. Strong domestic demand continues to support elevated import levels, consistent with CBO and private forecasts projecting modest narrowing as a share of GDP but still elevated nominal balances. Key upcoming catalysts include the August 4 release of June data and subsequent monthly reports through year-end that will refine the path relative to historical precedents near $900 billion.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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