Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for June 2026 centers on the 70-80 billion dollar range with 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the May goods-and-services shortfall of 77.6 billion that widened sharply from April's 54.6 billion revised figure amid rising imports of consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and crude oil alongside softer exports. Advance June goods data showed a narrower 101.5 billion goods gap versus May's 105.9 billion peak, with imports declining 2.6% and exports falling 1.8%, suggesting the full balance-of-payments reading—incorporating the typical 28-29 billion services surplus—will likely settle near recent levels once released August 4. Persistent tariff-related policy uncertainty and dollar strength continue to influence import volumes, while leading indicators point to stable net-export drag on second-quarter GDP without signaling a decisive shift outside the 70-80 billion band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật70-80B 81%
60-70B 11%
80-90B <1%
50-60B <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
<1%
50-60B
1%
60-70B
11%
70-80B
81%
80-90B
1%
90-100B
1%
100B+
<1%
70-80B 81%
60-70B 11%
80-90B <1%
50-60B <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
$397 KL.
<1%
50-60B
$403 KL.
1%
60-70B
$584 KL.
11%
70-80B
$7,312 KL.
81%
80-90B
$356 KL.
1%
90-100B
$356 KL.
1%
100B+
$467 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for June 2026 centers on the 70-80 billion dollar range with 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the May goods-and-services shortfall of 77.6 billion that widened sharply from April's 54.6 billion revised figure amid rising imports of consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and crude oil alongside softer exports. Advance June goods data showed a narrower 101.5 billion goods gap versus May's 105.9 billion peak, with imports declining 2.6% and exports falling 1.8%, suggesting the full balance-of-payments reading—incorporating the typical 28-29 billion services surplus—will likely settle near recent levels once released August 4. Persistent tariff-related policy uncertainty and dollar strength continue to influence import volumes, while leading indicators point to stable net-export drag on second-quarter GDP without signaling a decisive shift outside the 70-80 billion band.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,874Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for June 2026 centers on the 70-80 billion dollar range with 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the May goods-and-services shortfall of 77.6 billion that widened sharply from April's 54.6 billion revised figure amid rising imports of consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and crude oil alongside softer exports. Advance June goods data showed a narrower 101.5 billion goods gap versus May's 105.9 billion peak, with imports declining 2.6% and exports falling 1.8%, suggesting the full balance-of-payments reading—incorporating the typical 28-29 billion services surplus—will likely settle near recent levels once released August 4. Persistent tariff-related policy uncertainty and dollar strength continue to influence import volumes, while leading indicators point to stable net-export drag on second-quarter GDP without signaling a decisive shift outside the 70-80 billion band.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$9,874Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for June 2026 centers on the 70-80 billion dollar range with 80.5% implied probability, reflecting the May goods-and-services shortfall of 77.6 billion that widened sharply from April's 54.6 billion revised figure amid rising imports of consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and crude oil alongside softer exports. Advance June goods data showed a narrower 101.5 billion goods gap versus May's 105.9 billion peak, with imports declining 2.6% and exports falling 1.8%, suggesting the full balance-of-payments reading—incorporating the typical 28-29 billion services surplus—will likely settle near recent levels once released August 4. Persistent tariff-related policy uncertainty and dollar strength continue to influence import volumes, while leading indicators point to stable net-export drag on second-quarter GDP without signaling a decisive shift outside the 70-80 billion band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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