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icon for AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI基準

AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

icon for AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？
科技·AI基準

AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？

Ended: 1月 1, 2027

Ended: 1月 1, 2027

是

>99% 機率
Polymarket

$134,219 交易量

是

>99% 機率
Polymarket

$134,219 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress on FrontierMath, a benchmark of expert-level mathematics problems, drives the 99.7% market-implied probability that an AI model reaches ≥90% before 2027. As of early September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol leads the legacy version at 89% and FrontierMath v2 Tier 4 at 83%, following consistent gains from sub-2% at launch through GPT-5.5 releases and a June 2026 v2 update that corrected errors in 42% of problems and lifted scores across the board. Large language models continue to close the gap through scaled reasoning, tool use, and iterative releases, with trader consensus reflecting the historical pattern of math benchmarks saturating quickly once frontier systems exceed 50-70%. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether a new harder tier or version could reset the threshold before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$134,219
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress on FrontierMath, a benchmark of expert-level mathematics problems, drives the 99.7% market-implied probability that an AI model reaches ≥90% before 2027. As of early September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol leads the legacy version at 89% and FrontierMath v2 Tier 4 at 83%, following consistent gains from sub-2% at launch through GPT-5.5 releases and a June 2026 v2 update that corrected errors in 42% of problems and lifted scores across the board. Large language models continue to close the gap through scaled reasoning, tool use, and iterative releases, with trader consensus reflecting the historical pattern of math benchmarks saturating quickly once frontier systems exceed 50-70%. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether a new harder tier or version could reset the threshold before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$134,219
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AI模型在2027年前於FrontierMath基準測試中得分≥90%？" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

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The current frontrunner for "AI模型在2027年之前在FrontierMath Benchmark上的得分≥ 90% ？" is "AI模型在2027年前於FrontierMath基準測試中得分≥90%？" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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