Redistricting through California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed the 3rd District into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with Harris carrying it by roughly 10 points in the prior cycle. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera relocated to the district and secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Robb Tucker. This structural shift underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic probability. The general election on November 3, 2026, offers limited pathways for change, though unexpected developments such as major scandals, candidate health issues, or sharp national political swings could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$43,408 交易量
$43,408 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
2%
$43,408 交易量
$43,408 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$25,868 交易量
95%
共和黨
$17,541 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed the 3rd District into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with Harris carrying it by roughly 10 points in the prior cycle. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera relocated to the district and secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Robb Tucker. This structural shift underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic probability. The general election on November 3, 2026, offers limited pathways for change, though unexpected developments such as major scandals, candidate health issues, or sharp national political swings could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$43,408結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed the 3rd District into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with Harris carrying it by roughly 10 points in the prior cycle. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera relocated to the district and secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Robb Tucker. This structural shift underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic probability. The general election on November 3, 2026, offers limited pathways for change, though unexpected developments such as major scandals, candidate health issues, or sharp national political swings could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,408結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed the 3rd District into a significantly more Democratic-leaning seat, with Harris carrying it by roughly 10 points in the prior cycle. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera relocated to the district and secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Robb Tucker. This structural shift underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic probability. The general election on November 3, 2026, offers limited pathways for change, though unexpected developments such as major scandals, candidate health issues, or sharp national political swings could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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