Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock faces Democrat Michael Masuda in the November 2026 general election for California’s 5th congressional district after advancing from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote. The district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan lean, combined with McClintock’s long tenure since 2009 and strong fundraising position, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 89.5%. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 left the seat largely unchanged, preserving its Republican tilt with no competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments reported through late August 2026. Expert ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns that limit Democratic prospects absent major late-cycle events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-02
共和黨
90%
民主黨
11%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
共和黨
$5,469 交易量
90%
民主黨
$2,969 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock faces Democrat Michael Masuda in the November 2026 general election for California’s 5th congressional district after advancing from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote. The district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan lean, combined with McClintock’s long tenure since 2009 and strong fundraising position, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 89.5%. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 left the seat largely unchanged, preserving its Republican tilt with no competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments reported through late August 2026. Expert ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns that limit Democratic prospects absent major late-cycle events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$8,438結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock faces Democrat Michael Masuda in the November 2026 general election for California’s 5th congressional district after advancing from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote. The district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan lean, combined with McClintock’s long tenure since 2009 and strong fundraising position, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 89.5%. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 left the seat largely unchanged, preserving its Republican tilt with no competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments reported through late August 2026. Expert ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns that limit Democratic prospects absent major late-cycle events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,438結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock faces Democrat Michael Masuda in the November 2026 general election for California’s 5th congressional district after advancing from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote. The district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan lean, combined with McClintock’s long tenure since 2009 and strong fundraising position, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 89.5%. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 left the seat largely unchanged, preserving its Republican tilt with no competitive polling shifts or notable campaign developments reported through late August 2026. Expert ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and historical voting patterns that limit Democratic prospects absent major late-cycle events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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