Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to 17°C or higher as Istanbul's peak temperature today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting highs near 17°C amid variable cloudiness after morning showers, corroborated by AccuWeather's 63°F (17°C) outlook and partly cloudy conditions. This positions 16°C at 31%, reflecting model spread where persistent low clouds or sea breezes could cap warming at that threshold, while lower outcomes see negligible odds due to above-normal spring advection of mild southerly air. Official measurements at Istanbul Airport via NOAA will resolve the market; hourly observations through afternoon could shift odds as insolation strengthens under partial clearing skies. April climatology averages 15–16°C highs, underscoring today's modestly warmer forecast bias.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
17°C or higher 74%
16°C 29%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$34,620 交易量
$34,620 交易量
2026-04-03
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
29%
17°C or higher
74%
17°C or higher 74%
16°C 29%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$34,620 交易量
$34,620 交易量
2026-04-03
13°C
$4,126 交易量
<1%
14°C
$5,555 交易量
<1%
15°C
$3,952 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,694 交易量
29%
17°C or higher
$2,317 交易量
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to 17°C or higher as Istanbul's peak temperature today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting highs near 17°C amid variable cloudiness after morning showers, corroborated by AccuWeather's 63°F (17°C) outlook and partly cloudy conditions. This positions 16°C at 31%, reflecting model spread where persistent low clouds or sea breezes could cap warming at that threshold, while lower outcomes see negligible odds due to above-normal spring advection of mild southerly air. Official measurements at Istanbul Airport via NOAA will resolve the market; hourly observations through afternoon could shift odds as insolation strengthens under partial clearing skies. April climatology averages 15–16°C highs, underscoring today's modestly warmer forecast bias.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
交易量
$34,620結束日期
2026-04-03市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
爭議期
最終
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to 17°C or higher as Istanbul's peak temperature today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting highs near 17°C amid variable cloudiness after morning showers, corroborated by AccuWeather's 63°F (17°C) outlook and partly cloudy conditions. This positions 16°C at 31%, reflecting model spread where persistent low clouds or sea breezes could cap warming at that threshold, while lower outcomes see negligible odds due to above-normal spring advection of mild southerly air. Official measurements at Istanbul Airport via NOAA will resolve the market; hourly observations through afternoon could shift odds as insolation strengthens under partial clearing skies. April climatology averages 15–16°C highs, underscoring today's modestly warmer forecast bias.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$34,620結束日期
2026-04-03市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
爭議期
最終
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.5% implied probability to 17°C or higher as Istanbul's peak temperature today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting highs near 17°C amid variable cloudiness after morning showers, corroborated by AccuWeather's 63°F (17°C) outlook and partly cloudy conditions. This positions 16°C at 31%, reflecting model spread where persistent low clouds or sea breezes could cap warming at that threshold, while lower outcomes see negligible odds due to above-normal spring advection of mild southerly air. Official measurements at Istanbul Airport via NOAA will resolve the market; hourly observations through afternoon could shift odds as insolation strengthens under partial clearing skies. April climatology averages 15–16°C highs, underscoring today's modestly warmer forecast bias.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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