**Forecast models and historical patterns position 31–33°C as the most probable range for Manila’s highest temperature on September 14.** Multiple short-range forecasts, including GFS and other guidance valid as of September 12, indicate daytime maxima near 30–32°C (86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon. This aligns with Manila’s September climatology, where average highs typically reach 30–32°C amid high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. The market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C (36.5%) and nearby 31°C/33°C outcomes reflects this model consensus and the moderating effect of monsoon moisture and cloudiness. Lower probabilities for 34°C or higher (under 10% combined) stem from the low likelihood of clear, stable conditions that would allow stronger solar heating, while sub-30°C readings remain even less favored given baseline warmth and typical diurnal ranges. New model runs and official PAGASA updates over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs traders are monitoring ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月14日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
9月14日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
32°C 37%
33°C 27%
31°C 22%
34°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
26°C或以下
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
6%
31°C
22%
32°C
37%
33°C
27%
34°C
8%
35°C
2%
36°C或以上
2%
32°C 37%
33°C 27%
31°C 22%
34°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
26°C或以下
$297 交易量
1%
27°C
$197 交易量
1%
28°C
$29 交易量
2%
29°C
$15 交易量
3%
30°C
$25 交易量
6%
31°C
$79 交易量
22%
32°C
$389 交易量
37%
33°C
$138 交易量
27%
34°C
$10 交易量
8%
35°C
$0 交易量
2%
36°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and historical patterns position 31–33°C as the most probable range for Manila’s highest temperature on September 14.** Multiple short-range forecasts, including GFS and other guidance valid as of September 12, indicate daytime maxima near 30–32°C (86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon. This aligns with Manila’s September climatology, where average highs typically reach 30–32°C amid high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon convection that limits extreme heating.
The market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C (36.5%) and nearby 31°C/33°C outcomes reflects this model consensus and the moderating effect of monsoon moisture and cloudiness. Lower probabilities for 34°C or higher (under 10% combined) stem from the low likelihood of clear, stable conditions that would allow stronger solar heating, while sub-30°C readings remain even less favored given baseline warmth and typical diurnal ranges. New model runs and official PAGASA updates over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs traders are monitoring ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$1,180結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and historical patterns position 31–33°C as the most probable range for Manila’s highest temperature on September 14.** Multiple short-range forecasts, including GFS and other guidance valid as of September 12, indicate daytime maxima near 30–32°C (86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon. This aligns with Manila’s September climatology, where average highs typically reach 30–32°C amid high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon convection that limits extreme heating.
The market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C (36.5%) and nearby 31°C/33°C outcomes reflects this model consensus and the moderating effect of monsoon moisture and cloudiness. Lower probabilities for 34°C or higher (under 10% combined) stem from the low likelihood of clear, stable conditions that would allow stronger solar heating, while sub-30°C readings remain even less favored given baseline warmth and typical diurnal ranges. New model runs and official PAGASA updates over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs traders are monitoring ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,180結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ET**Forecast models and historical patterns position 31–33°C as the most probable range for Manila’s highest temperature on September 14.** Multiple short-range forecasts, including GFS and other guidance valid as of September 12, indicate daytime maxima near 30–32°C (86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon. This aligns with Manila’s September climatology, where average highs typically reach 30–32°C amid high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. The market’s heaviest weighting on 32°C (36.5%) and nearby 31°C/33°C outcomes reflects this model consensus and the moderating effect of monsoon moisture and cloudiness. Lower probabilities for 34°C or higher (under 10% combined) stem from the low likelihood of clear, stable conditions that would allow stronger solar heating, while sub-30°C readings remain even less favored given baseline warmth and typical diurnal ranges. New model runs and official PAGASA updates over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs traders are monitoring ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions