Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 80-81°F (40.5%) over 82-83°F (32.0%) for Miami's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble outputs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks around 81°F amid lingering effects of the 2025-2026 winter—the chilliest since 2010—following a fading La Niña toward ENSO-neutral conditions that favor near-normal early April highs near 82°F. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing, which moderates afternoon peaks via onshore flow, light winds around 12 mph potentially limiting mixing, and low 20% precipitation odds introducing cloud cover uncertainty that could shave 1-2°F off clearer-sky scenarios. Historical climatology shows April 4 highs averaging 82°F at Miami International Airport, with new model runs overnight poised to sharpen resolution ahead of tomorrow's observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Miami on April 4?
Highest temperature in Miami on April 4?
80-81°F 41%
82-83°F 32%
78-79°F 15%
84-85°F 11%
$16,616 交易量
$16,616 交易量
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 41%
82-83°F 32%
78-79°F 15%
84-85°F 11%
$16,616 交易量
$16,616 交易量
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 80-81°F (40.5%) over 82-83°F (32.0%) for Miami's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble outputs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks around 81°F amid lingering effects of the 2025-2026 winter—the chilliest since 2010—following a fading La Niña toward ENSO-neutral conditions that favor near-normal early April highs near 82°F. Key differentiators include sea breeze timing, which moderates afternoon peaks via onshore flow, light winds around 12 mph potentially limiting mixing, and low 20% precipitation odds introducing cloud cover uncertainty that could shave 1-2°F off clearer-sky scenarios. Historical climatology shows April 4 highs averaging 82°F at Miami International Airport, with new model runs overnight poised to sharpen resolution ahead of tomorrow's observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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