Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 60°F or higher at 50% implied probability for Central Park's highest temperature on April 7, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting highs near 60°F amid a warming trend. After cooler early April conditions with highs in the 50s, recent model runs show building upper-level ridging and southerly flow boosting temperatures above the mid-50s climatological average, as seen in the rebound to upper 50s this week. The nearby 50-51°F (26.5%) and 41°F or below (25.5%) outcomes reflect model spread from potential cloudiness or delayed warm front. New 00z/12z runs from NOAA today and tomorrow could shift odds further ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on April 7?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 7?
50-51°F 23%
48-49°F 20%
52-53°F 12%
58-59°F 12%
41°F or below
2%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
10%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
14%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
12%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
12%
60°F or higher
5%
50-51°F 23%
48-49°F 20%
52-53°F 12%
58-59°F 12%
41°F or below
2%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
10%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
14%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
12%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
12%
60°F or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 60°F or higher at 50% implied probability for Central Park's highest temperature on April 7, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance projecting highs near 60°F amid a warming trend. After cooler early April conditions with highs in the 50s, recent model runs show building upper-level ridging and southerly flow boosting temperatures above the mid-50s climatological average, as seen in the rebound to upper 50s this week. The nearby 50-51°F (26.5%) and 41°F or below (25.5%) outcomes reflect model spread from potential cloudiness or delayed warm front. New 00z/12z runs from NOAA today and tomorrow could shift odds further ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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