Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4 at 30% implied probability, closely trailed by 25°C and 27°C, driven by the latest short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing highs in the 25-27°C range. Overcast skies, scattered thunderstorms, and 80-90% humidity from southerly winds are expected to limit solar heating and peak temperatures, with recent 24-hour updates shifting odds downward from hotter, drier outlooks amid incoming moist air masses. Differentiating factors include morning cloud breaks potentially boosting 27°C versus afternoon convection favoring 25°C, against early-April climatological averages of 24-26°C highs; final observational data releases today could refine this uncertainty before resolution via official airport station readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 4?
26°C 30%
25°C 27%
27°C 19%
24°C 13%
$11,574 交易量
$11,574 交易量
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
13%
25°C
27%
26°C
30%
27°C
19%
28°C
12%
29°C or higher
3%
26°C 30%
25°C 27%
27°C 19%
24°C 13%
$11,574 交易量
$11,574 交易量
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
13%
25°C
27%
26°C
30%
27°C
19%
28°C
12%
29°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 4 at 30% implied probability, closely trailed by 25°C and 27°C, driven by the latest short-range forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing highs in the 25-27°C range. Overcast skies, scattered thunderstorms, and 80-90% humidity from southerly winds are expected to limit solar heating and peak temperatures, with recent 24-hour updates shifting odds downward from hotter, drier outlooks amid incoming moist air masses. Differentiating factors include morning cloud breaks potentially boosting 27°C versus afternoon convection favoring 25°C, against early-April climatological averages of 24-26°C highs; final observational data releases today could refine this uncertainty before resolution via official airport station readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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