Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 27°C (27% implied probability) and 28°C (24%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range weather models for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 5. Global forecast ensembles like ECMWF and GFS indicate a 26-29°C spread, driven by variable low-level cloud cover from southerly sea breezes and moderate humidity capping daytime heating amid subtropical spring conditions. Historical April highs average 26°C, with early-month days often peaking at 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies; recent local observations (April 1-3) align closely, showing no anomalous patterns. China Meteorological Administration updates expected by April 4 could refine probabilities as land-based measurements near resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 5?
27°C 27%
26°C 24%
28°C 23%
25°C 15%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
15%
26°C
24%
27°C
27%
28°C
23%
29°C
15%
30°C or higher
7%
27°C 27%
26°C 24%
28°C 23%
25°C 15%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
15%
26°C
24%
27°C
27%
28°C
23%
29°C
15%
30°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 27°C (27% implied probability) and 28°C (24%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range weather models for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport on April 5. Global forecast ensembles like ECMWF and GFS indicate a 26-29°C spread, driven by variable low-level cloud cover from southerly sea breezes and moderate humidity capping daytime heating amid subtropical spring conditions. Historical April highs average 26°C, with early-month days often peaking at 25-27°C under partly cloudy skies; recent local observations (April 1-3) align closely, showing no anomalous patterns. China Meteorological Administration updates expected by April 4 could refine probabilities as land-based measurements near resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions