Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 18 at around 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and low precipitation risk (10%), driving trader sentiment toward that outcome at 45% implied probability, ahead of 20°C (26.5%) and 22°C (22%). Recent observations show persistent spring warmth, with April 16 highs reaching 21°C amid a high-pressure ridge, though evolving cloud patterns from the east are capping intensification potential beyond 22°C (low odds at 3.1% for 23°C+). Historical April averages hover near 19°C, but above-normal anomalies persist; final JMA updates today and real-time monitoring at central Tokyo stations could refine this ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月18日東京氣溫最高?
4月18日東京氣溫最高?
21°C 44%
20°C 27%
22°C 23%
19°C 6%
$18,611 交易量
$18,611 交易量
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
27%
21°C
44%
22°C
23%
23°C or higher
3%
21°C 44%
20°C 27%
22°C 23%
19°C 6%
$18,611 交易量
$18,611 交易量
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
27%
21°C
44%
22°C
23%
23°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 18 at around 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and low precipitation risk (10%), driving trader sentiment toward that outcome at 45% implied probability, ahead of 20°C (26.5%) and 22°C (22%). Recent observations show persistent spring warmth, with April 16 highs reaching 21°C amid a high-pressure ridge, though evolving cloud patterns from the east are capping intensification potential beyond 22°C (low odds at 3.1% for 23°C+). Historical April averages hover near 19°C, but above-normal anomalies persist; final JMA updates today and real-time monitoring at central Tokyo stations could refine this ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions