Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月25日東京的最低溫度？
8月25日東京的最低溫度？
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,105 交易量
$16,105 交易量
2026-08-25
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,105 交易量
$16,105 交易量
2026-08-25
21°C or below
$2,394 交易量
No
22°C
$178 交易量
No
23°C
$710 交易量
No
24°C
$1,318 交易量
No
25°C
$1,301 交易量
No
26°C
$1,337 交易量
No
27°C
$2,781 交易量
No
28°C
$3,959 交易量
Yes
29°C
$1,288 交易量
No
30°C
$278 交易量
No
31°C or higher
$563 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$16,105結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,105結束日期
2026-08-25市場開放時間
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders assign 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Tokyo on August 25 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and multiple ensemble models consistently project overnight minima of 27–28°C under persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 75–80%, and limited radiative cooling from partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Tokyo stations show temperatures stabilizing above 28°C through the early morning hours, aligning with climatological August norms for the region. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects strong agreement across official guidance rather than speculation. An unexpected clearing trend or stronger nocturnal cooling could push the actual minimum lower, though such shifts remain unlikely given the established steering pattern and lack of frontal activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions