Record-low winter maximum sea ice extent in March 2026, combined with persistently thin first-year ice and early marginal sea melt, has positioned 2026 for a low September minimum, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4.0–4.8 million square kilometers. Key differentiators include summer atmospheric patterns such as high-pressure ridges that enhance melt via increased solar absorption and wind-driven ice export through Fram Strait, versus cooler, cloudier conditions that could slow ablation. Ocean heat content and the ice-albedo feedback amplify variability, while National Snow and Ice Data Center and JAXA observations through late July confirm extents tracking near or below recent lows, with model consensus projecting outcomes near 4.5 million square kilometers absent major weather shifts before peak melt ends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
少於400萬平方公里 23%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 20.9%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 19.4%
440-460萬平方公里 18.6%
$65,233 交易量
$65,233 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
23%
400萬至420萬平方公里
15%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
21%
440-460萬平方公里
19%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
19%
480-500萬平方公里
4%
500萬平方公里以上
4%
少於400萬平方公里 23%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 20.9%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 19.4%
440-460萬平方公里 18.6%
$65,233 交易量
$65,233 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
$29,886 交易量
23%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$6,329 交易量
15%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$2,689 交易量
21%
440-460萬平方公里
$2,848 交易量
19%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$6,438 交易量
19%
480-500萬平方公里
$2,732 交易量
4%
500萬平方公里以上
$14,311 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low winter maximum sea ice extent in March 2026, combined with persistently thin first-year ice and early marginal sea melt, has positioned 2026 for a low September minimum, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4.0–4.8 million square kilometers. Key differentiators include summer atmospheric patterns such as high-pressure ridges that enhance melt via increased solar absorption and wind-driven ice export through Fram Strait, versus cooler, cloudier conditions that could slow ablation. Ocean heat content and the ice-albedo feedback amplify variability, while National Snow and Ice Data Center and JAXA observations through late July confirm extents tracking near or below recent lows, with model consensus projecting outcomes near 4.5 million square kilometers absent major weather shifts before peak melt ends.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$65,233結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low winter maximum sea ice extent in March 2026, combined with persistently thin first-year ice and early marginal sea melt, has positioned 2026 for a low September minimum, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4.0–4.8 million square kilometers. Key differentiators include summer atmospheric patterns such as high-pressure ridges that enhance melt via increased solar absorption and wind-driven ice export through Fram Strait, versus cooler, cloudier conditions that could slow ablation. Ocean heat content and the ice-albedo feedback amplify variability, while National Snow and Ice Data Center and JAXA observations through late July confirm extents tracking near or below recent lows, with model consensus projecting outcomes near 4.5 million square kilometers absent major weather shifts before peak melt ends.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$65,233結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low winter maximum sea ice extent in March 2026, combined with persistently thin first-year ice and early marginal sea melt, has positioned 2026 for a low September minimum, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4.0–4.8 million square kilometers. Key differentiators include summer atmospheric patterns such as high-pressure ridges that enhance melt via increased solar absorption and wind-driven ice export through Fram Strait, versus cooler, cloudier conditions that could slow ablation. Ocean heat content and the ice-albedo feedback amplify variability, while National Snow and Ice Data Center and JAXA observations through late July confirm extents tracking near or below recent lows, with model consensus projecting outcomes near 4.5 million square kilometers absent major weather shifts before peak melt ends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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