Record-low 2026 winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million km², tied with 2025 as the smallest in the satellite record, has left thinner ice entering the melt season and raised the potential for a low September minimum. Mid-season forecasts, such as the May projection of 4.49 million km², align with trader-implied odds clustering around 4.2–4.6 million km², while the leading <4 million km² outcome at 25.5% reflects ongoing concern over rapid melt. Key differentiating factors include summer atmospheric patterns that control surface melt rates and ice export, ocean heat content, and the limited remaining multi-year ice, all of which introduce substantial uncertainty until late-summer model runs and observational updates clarify the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
少於400萬平方公里 31%
440-460萬平方公里 18.3%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 17.5%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 16.8%
$64,936 交易量
$64,936 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
27%
400萬至420萬平方公里
14%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
17%
440-460萬平方公里
18%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
18%
480-500萬平方公里
3%
500萬平方公里以上
3%
少於400萬平方公里 31%
440-460萬平方公里 18.3%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 17.5%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 16.8%
$64,936 交易量
$64,936 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
$29,874 交易量
27%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$6,255 交易量
14%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$2,520 交易量
17%
440-460萬平方公里
$2,848 交易量
18%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$6,395 交易量
18%
480-500萬平方公里
$2,732 交易量
3%
500萬平方公里以上
$14,311 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million km², tied with 2025 as the smallest in the satellite record, has left thinner ice entering the melt season and raised the potential for a low September minimum. Mid-season forecasts, such as the May projection of 4.49 million km², align with trader-implied odds clustering around 4.2–4.6 million km², while the leading <4 million km² outcome at 25.5% reflects ongoing concern over rapid melt. Key differentiating factors include summer atmospheric patterns that control surface melt rates and ice export, ocean heat content, and the limited remaining multi-year ice, all of which introduce substantial uncertainty until late-summer model runs and observational updates clarify the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$64,936結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million km², tied with 2025 as the smallest in the satellite record, has left thinner ice entering the melt season and raised the potential for a low September minimum. Mid-season forecasts, such as the May projection of 4.49 million km², align with trader-implied odds clustering around 4.2–4.6 million km², while the leading <4 million km² outcome at 25.5% reflects ongoing concern over rapid melt. Key differentiating factors include summer atmospheric patterns that control surface melt rates and ice export, ocean heat content, and the limited remaining multi-year ice, all of which introduce substantial uncertainty until late-summer model runs and observational updates clarify the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$64,936結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million km², tied with 2025 as the smallest in the satellite record, has left thinner ice entering the melt season and raised the potential for a low September minimum. Mid-season forecasts, such as the May projection of 4.49 million km², align with trader-implied odds clustering around 4.2–4.6 million km², while the leading <4 million km² outcome at 25.5% reflects ongoing concern over rapid melt. Key differentiating factors include summer atmospheric patterns that control surface melt rates and ice export, ocean heat content, and the limited remaining multi-year ice, all of which introduce substantial uncertainty until late-summer model runs and observational updates clarify the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions