Recent low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, tracking among the lowest five on record through July 2026, have anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0–4.6 million sq km range for the September minimum. Persistent above-average temperatures in key peripheral seas, thin first-year ice dominance, and limited winter recovery from the prior low maximum have preconditioned the ice pack for substantial melt, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model consensus from the Sea Ice Outlook and dynamical forecasts centers near 4.5 million sq km, but divergence stems from uncertainty in August–September weather patterns, including high-pressure systems that accelerate melt versus cooler, cloudier conditions that slow it. NSIDC daily extent updates and revised seasonal model runs through mid-August will sharpen resolution probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
少於400萬平方公里 22%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 21.4%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 20.2%
440-460萬平方公里 18.6%
$65,233 交易量
$65,233 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
22%
400萬至420萬平方公里
18%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
21%
440-460萬平方公里
19%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
20%
480-500萬平方公里
4%
500萬平方公里以上
3%
少於400萬平方公里 22%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 21.4%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 20.2%
440-460萬平方公里 18.6%
$65,233 交易量
$65,233 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
$29,886 交易量
22%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$6,329 交易量
18%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$2,689 交易量
21%
440-460萬平方公里
$2,848 交易量
19%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$6,438 交易量
20%
480-500萬平方公里
$2,732 交易量
4%
500萬平方公里以上
$14,311 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, tracking among the lowest five on record through July 2026, have anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0–4.6 million sq km range for the September minimum. Persistent above-average temperatures in key peripheral seas, thin first-year ice dominance, and limited winter recovery from the prior low maximum have preconditioned the ice pack for substantial melt, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model consensus from the Sea Ice Outlook and dynamical forecasts centers near 4.5 million sq km, but divergence stems from uncertainty in August–September weather patterns, including high-pressure systems that accelerate melt versus cooler, cloudier conditions that slow it. NSIDC daily extent updates and revised seasonal model runs through mid-August will sharpen resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$65,233結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, tracking among the lowest five on record through July 2026, have anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0–4.6 million sq km range for the September minimum. Persistent above-average temperatures in key peripheral seas, thin first-year ice dominance, and limited winter recovery from the prior low maximum have preconditioned the ice pack for substantial melt, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model consensus from the Sea Ice Outlook and dynamical forecasts centers near 4.5 million sq km, but divergence stems from uncertainty in August–September weather patterns, including high-pressure systems that accelerate melt versus cooler, cloudier conditions that slow it. NSIDC daily extent updates and revised seasonal model runs through mid-August will sharpen resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$65,233結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, tracking among the lowest five on record through July 2026, have anchored trader sentiment around the 4.0–4.6 million sq km range for the September minimum. Persistent above-average temperatures in key peripheral seas, thin first-year ice dominance, and limited winter recovery from the prior low maximum have preconditioned the ice pack for substantial melt, consistent with the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model consensus from the Sea Ice Outlook and dynamical forecasts centers near 4.5 million sq km, but divergence stems from uncertainty in August–September weather patterns, including high-pressure systems that accelerate melt versus cooler, cloudier conditions that slow it. NSIDC daily extent updates and revised seasonal model runs through mid-August will sharpen resolution probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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