Low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, including a winter maximum tied for the satellite-era low and June values near 10.85 million sq km, have positioned 2026 for a potentially reduced September minimum. Thin ice and reduced multi-year coverage amplify melt sensitivity to August–September weather, with model ranges from 3.74–5.57 million sq km reflecting this variability. Warm, calm conditions accelerate albedo-driven losses and open-water formation, while storms or cooler patterns can compact or preserve ice. Trader probabilities clustered around 4.0–4.8 million sq km capture the balance between ongoing trends and forecast uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
少於400萬平方公里 22%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 21.2%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 20.2%
440-460萬平方公里 18.6%
$65,233 交易量
$65,233 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
22%
400萬至420萬平方公里
15%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
21%
440-460萬平方公里
19%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
20%
480-500萬平方公里
4%
500萬平方公里以上
3%
少於400萬平方公里 22%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 21.2%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里 20.2%
440-460萬平方公里 18.6%
$65,233 交易量
$65,233 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
$29,886 交易量
22%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$6,329 交易量
15%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$2,689 交易量
21%
440-460萬平方公里
$2,848 交易量
19%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$6,438 交易量
20%
480-500萬平方公里
$2,732 交易量
4%
500萬平方公里以上
$14,311 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, including a winter maximum tied for the satellite-era low and June values near 10.85 million sq km, have positioned 2026 for a potentially reduced September minimum. Thin ice and reduced multi-year coverage amplify melt sensitivity to August–September weather, with model ranges from 3.74–5.57 million sq km reflecting this variability. Warm, calm conditions accelerate albedo-driven losses and open-water formation, while storms or cooler patterns can compact or preserve ice. Trader probabilities clustered around 4.0–4.8 million sq km capture the balance between ongoing trends and forecast uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$65,233結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, including a winter maximum tied for the satellite-era low and June values near 10.85 million sq km, have positioned 2026 for a potentially reduced September minimum. Thin ice and reduced multi-year coverage amplify melt sensitivity to August–September weather, with model ranges from 3.74–5.57 million sq km reflecting this variability. Warm, calm conditions accelerate albedo-driven losses and open-water formation, while storms or cooler patterns can compact or preserve ice. Trader probabilities clustered around 4.0–4.8 million sq km capture the balance between ongoing trends and forecast uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$65,233結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Low spring and early summer Arctic sea ice extents, including a winter maximum tied for the satellite-era low and June values near 10.85 million sq km, have positioned 2026 for a potentially reduced September minimum. Thin ice and reduced multi-year coverage amplify melt sensitivity to August–September weather, with model ranges from 3.74–5.57 million sq km reflecting this variability. Warm, calm conditions accelerate albedo-driven losses and open-water formation, while storms or cooler patterns can compact or preserve ice. Trader probabilities clustered around 4.0–4.8 million sq km capture the balance between ongoing trends and forecast uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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