Canada’s population has recorded consecutive quarterly declines in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by federal immigration policy shifts that sharply reduced permanent resident targets to 380,000 for 2026 while imposing tighter caps on temporary residents, international students, and foreign workers. These measures produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents, offsetting gains from permanent admissions and natural increase, according to Statistics Canada estimates showing drops of over 55,000 in Q1 2026 alone. Official projections from the Parliamentary Budget Officer and government levels plans anticipate flat or modestly negative annual growth through 2026 as the temporary resident share of the population falls toward 5 percent. This policy-driven contraction underpins traders’ strong consensus on a year-end decline.