Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS drive trader sentiment toward 21-22°C as Beijing's highest temperature on March 27, with probabilities tightly clustered at 27% and 26.5%, reflecting a projected mild southerly flow and high-pressure ridge fostering daytime highs in the low 20s. Recent developments, including yesterday's 18°C peak and minimal cloud cover forecast, differentiate these from cooler 19-20°C outcomes (33.5% combined), which would require unexpected northerly gusts, while slim odds for 23°C+ (29.5%) hinge on stronger solar insolation absent any marine layer. Historical late-March norms around 15-18°C underscore the warming anomaly from urban heat island effects and El Niño residuals, though 2°C model spread signals resolution risk near market thresholds.