Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 4, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 28–30 °C amid typical August humidity and light winds. This cloud cover and any scattered showers explain why traders favor the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes over higher thresholds, while the urban heat-island effect and regional sea-breeze patterns keep probabilities for 27 °C or below lower. Minor divergences among model runs on afternoon clearing timing create the close spread between the leading bins, with updates from official monitoring expected to refine these odds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日东京气温最高？
8月4日东京气温最高？
28°C 30%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
20%
28°C
30%
29°C
29%
30°C
13%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 30%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
22°C or below
$419 交易量
<1%
23°C
$409 交易量
<1%
24°C
$499 交易量
<1%
25°C
$20 交易量
2%
26°C
$36 交易量
6%
27°C
$160 交易量
20%
28°C
$249 交易量
30%
29°C
$24 交易量
29%
30°C
$223 交易量
13%
31°C
$477 交易量
4%
32°C or higher
$10 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 4, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 28–30 °C amid typical August humidity and light winds. This cloud cover and any scattered showers explain why traders favor the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes over higher thresholds, while the urban heat-island effect and regional sea-breeze patterns keep probabilities for 27 °C or below lower. Minor divergences among model runs on afternoon clearing timing create the close spread between the leading bins, with updates from official monitoring expected to refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$2,525结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 4, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 28–30 °C amid typical August humidity and light winds. This cloud cover and any scattered showers explain why traders favor the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes over higher thresholds, while the urban heat-island effect and regional sea-breeze patterns keep probabilities for 27 °C or below lower. Minor divergences among model runs on afternoon clearing timing create the close spread between the leading bins, with updates from official monitoring expected to refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,525结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show mostly cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 4, limiting solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 28–30 °C amid typical August humidity and light winds. This cloud cover and any scattered showers explain why traders favor the 28 °C and 29 °C outcomes over higher thresholds, while the urban heat-island effect and regional sea-breeze patterns keep probabilities for 27 °C or below lower. Minor divergences among model runs on afternoon clearing timing create the close spread between the leading bins, with updates from official monitoring expected to refine these odds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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