Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 9°C in Warsaw on March 26 at 31% implied probability, closely trailed by 10°C (24.5%) and 8-11°C outcomes, reflecting tight ensemble forecast spreads from ECMWF and GFS models. Recent 00Z runs show peak afternoon highs clustering around 8-11°C amid a transitional air mass, with mild southerly flow battling residual cold from a departing northerly front—differentiating 9°C as the median via slight model bias toward cloud-induced cooling over sunnier 10-11°C scenarios. Historical late-March norms (~8-10°C) and ±2°C short-range uncertainty from IMGW observations underpin the narrow odds, with final resolution hinging on diurnal heating and any convective timing shifts.