Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by persistent westerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that suppress daytime solar heating. Official forecasts consistently project afternoon highs near 15°C, with limited warming potential under overcast conditions and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h. This aligns with the market's leading 48% implied probability for 15°C, followed by 14°C at 31%, as traders weigh the narrow range typical for late-September synoptic patterns in central Poland. Updated model runs overnight have shown minimal shifts, reinforcing the current distribution ahead of final observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙9月21日的最高温度？
华沙9月21日的最高温度？
15°C 48%
14°C 31%
16°C 20%
13°C 4%
最新
$12,351 交易量
最新
$12,351 交易量
2026-09-21
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
31%
15°C
48%
16°C
20%
17°C
3%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C或更高
<1%
15°C 48%
14°C 31%
16°C 20%
13°C 4%
最新
$12,351 交易量
最新
$12,351 交易量
2026-09-21
10°C或以下
$267 交易量
<1%
11°C
$211 交易量
<1%
12°C
$73 交易量
2%
13°C
$472 交易量
4%
14°C
$4,264 交易量
31%
15°C
$1,435 交易量
48%
16°C
$4,340 交易量
20%
17°C
$491 交易量
3%
18°C
$411 交易量
<1%
19°C
$199 交易量
<1%
20°C或更高
$188 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by persistent westerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that suppress daytime solar heating. Official forecasts consistently project afternoon highs near 15°C, with limited warming potential under overcast conditions and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h. This aligns with the market's leading 48% implied probability for 15°C, followed by 14°C at 31%, as traders weigh the narrow range typical for late-September synoptic patterns in central Poland. Updated model runs overnight have shown minimal shifts, reinforcing the current distribution ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$12,351结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by persistent westerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that suppress daytime solar heating. Official forecasts consistently project afternoon highs near 15°C, with limited warming potential under overcast conditions and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h. This aligns with the market's leading 48% implied probability for 15°C, followed by 14°C at 31%, as traders weigh the narrow range typical for late-September synoptic patterns in central Poland. Updated model runs overnight have shown minimal shifts, reinforcing the current distribution ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,351结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum temperature of 15°C in Warsaw on September 21, driven by persistent westerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that suppress daytime solar heating. Official forecasts consistently project afternoon highs near 15°C, with limited warming potential under overcast conditions and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h. This aligns with the market's leading 48% implied probability for 15°C, followed by 14°C at 31%, as traders weigh the narrow range typical for late-September synoptic patterns in central Poland. Updated model runs overnight have shown minimal shifts, reinforcing the current distribution ahead of final observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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