Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Nithya Raman as the frontrunner at 48.5% implied probability for the June 2 nonpartisan primary in the Los Angeles mayoral election, driven by her surge to 33% in the March 30 Loyola Marymount University poll—outpacing incumbent Karen Bass's 17%—amid ongoing voter frustration with Bass's 56% unfavorability ratings tied to homelessness and Palisades Fire response. Bass holds second at 24.5%, buoyed by incumbency but vulnerable with 40% undecided per the April UCLA Luskin survey. Spencer Pratt's 19.5% reflects outsider momentum from his reality TV profile and fire victim narrative, despite recent eligibility scrutiny over a post-fire move to Santa Barbara County, while high undecideds signal volatility ahead of the top-two runoff trigger.