**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins). The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日安卡拉最低气温？
9月15日安卡拉最低气温？
5°C或以下 78%
15°C或更高 78%
6°C 39%
13°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
5°C或以下
78%
6°C
39%
7°C
22%
8°C
23%
9°C
22%
10°C
22%
11°C
22%
12°C
21%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C或更高
78%
5°C或以下 78%
15°C或更高 78%
6°C 39%
13°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
5°C或以下
$10 交易量
78%
6°C
$10 交易量
39%
7°C
$0 交易量
22%
8°C
$0 交易量
23%
9°C
$0 交易量
22%
10°C
$0 交易量
22%
11°C
$0 交易量
22%
12°C
$0 交易量
21%
13°C
$10 交易量
39%
14°C
$10 交易量
39%
15°C或更高
$10 交易量
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.**
Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins).
The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift.
With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$50结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.**
Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins).
The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift.
With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$50结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET**Forecast models converge on a daily minimum of roughly 10–12°C for Ankara on September 15, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS-derived products, and national services, project daytime highs near 24–26°C dropping to overnight lows of 10–13°C at representative stations such as Esenboğa Airport, with minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss after sunset. This places the most probable outcome near 10–12°C, consistent with the market’s cluster of mid-range probabilities (roughly 19–22.5% each for 8–14°C bins). The equal weighting on the extreme tails (5°C or below and 15°C or higher at 39% each) reflects residual uncertainty in the precise minimum: small variations in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or urban versus rural station differences can shift the recorded low by 2–4°C. Historical September climatology for Ankara shows average lows near 14°C, so the cooler forecast reflects a transient northerly flow rather than a broader seasonal shift. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing the narrow window of model consensus against the inherent spread in short-range temperature forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题